How long will it take for robots to replace us?

Robots to grab 15M jobs, especially in accountancy

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Good morning,

I have just read the following article published today (06/12/2016): http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4003756/Robots-steal-15m-jobs-sa...

"And it (the Bank of England) has even predicted that entire professions, such as accountancy, could be pushed to the brink of extinction as developments in computers make their roles redundant."

Is this article scaring anyone? Or is everyone just bored of hearing about this topic over and over again? I believe CIMA members were recently polled and they were looking forward to automation.

What are practices who predominately deal with compliance doing? Nothing/sleep walking? Selling  up? Do small clients want/happy to pay for value added services? What do value added services look like for micro/small businesses/freelancers? How long will it take for the rise of the robots? 

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By tom123
06th Dec 2016 07:09

Apparently MTD will get rid of loads ;)

Seriously though, when my father started in IT (in 1970) they were talking about 'the paperless office' - still not there yet.

I have been working about 20 years - and, bar the rise of email and the decline of fax and word processed letters - my job would be recognisable to my 1995 self.

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By bajones
06th Dec 2016 09:10

GR wrote:
Is this article scaring anyone?

It's the daily mail, it was written to scare people..

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By justsotax
06th Dec 2016 09:10

presumably when a tax question can simply be answered yes or no....but judging by the many 'simple' questions that lead to many a good discussion I am guessing not soon...

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paddle steamer
By DJKL
06th Dec 2016 09:17

Marvin: Here I am, brain the size of a planet, and they tell me to produce his accounts. Call that job satisfaction? Cause I don't.

Marvin:You can blame the Sirius Cybernetics Corporation for making androids with GPP...
Arthur: Um... what's GPP?
Marvin: [despondently] Genuine People Personalities. I'm a personality prototype. You can tell, can't you...?

With apologies to Douglas Adams for amending his words, however I think there may be distinct limitations for AI doing accounts and tax; it may become terribly depressed.

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RLI
By lionofludesch
06th Dec 2016 09:41

Still waiting for my hoverboard.

It should be out in 2015.

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By ireallyshouldknowthisbut
06th Dec 2016 10:16

It is amazing how people far removed from something know very little about it.

Whilst some tasks do get easier, there seems to be an amazing ability for politicians to keep making things more complex as "the computer" will work it out.

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Tornado
By Tornado
06th Dec 2016 10:17

Exterminate Accountants ...
Exterminate Accountants ...
Daleks to take over everything

What a load of tosh. The world is not going to be ruled by robots even though there are plenty of people trying their damnedest to control us (MTD). Mr Carney needs to just pack his bags and go home and tell his fairy stories to his Canadian friends instead.

The way things are done may change for sure, but the underlying needs are still there otherwise we will eventually all just 'exist' in a grey soulless world which is only interested in compliance, and that is definitely NOT going to happen.

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By Black Friday
06th Dec 2016 10:19

Hopefully Governor of the Bank of England will be the first job to be replaced by a robot.

The fact that we have a politically motivated delusional fool in charge of the Bank of England is worrying.

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By Portia Nina Levin
06th Dec 2016 10:47

It seems an obvious step to replace compliance monkeys with versions that do not need food or rest.

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paddle steamer
By DJKL
06th Dec 2016 11:42

I suspect (crystal ball view here) it will be within business and industry (especially finance) that robots and AI make the fastest inroads into current "accountancy roles", initially it will be more clerical /data input roles but as more and more data will be processed the range of tasks operated by AI et al will likely increase.

To me, depending upon the spread of the scope of MTD, practice compliance could follow suit, if bank feeds can import transactions I am pretty sure AI will develop to be able to correctly code these and thereafter produce accounts and tax computations as an automated process; longer term a universal accounting system, joining up all business entities (at least within a country/language) is not an impossible dream (nightmare)

One of the more interesting recent aspects of AI is the development of capability to interpret human facial expressions. If AI can tell when people are lying by reading expressions its role in accountancy (and tax investigations) might advance in leaps and bounds.

HCI is always being developed and improved (or made worse depending upon viewpoint), certainly a couple of my son's friends from university ( Comp Sci graduates) are involved with developing interfaces to software their employers are creating.

I am sure there will be blind alleys, I am sure some things will change faster than currently expected ,others slower, but I am also sure the change will happen and not all the longer term consequences will be understood early in the process.

Consequences have never been easy to fully discern/predict, if I had popped up and told the 16th century King Charles V , King of Spain and Holy Roman Emperor, that shipping all that silver /gold back from the Americas was not a good idea he would not have listened, (But, gold and treasure is good, what harm is there, I have more money to spend, my descendants can build an Armada- fast forward to QE today) but it was not a good idea, long term it was possibly one of the main reasons Spain (and the HRE) was eventually overtaken in continental Europe as the dominant power. (Spanish economic stagnation- enter France stage left)

The one thing my study of history tells me is there will be change, and Carney is correct in one thing; change has in the past been brutal for certain sections of society, especially during the change process.

I think people make a grave mistake allowing their animosity to Carney to then ignore all that he says, the march of history is more likely with him than against re this idea, the only debatable question is like good comedy; timing.

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By justsotax
06th Dec 2016 12:01

I wonder how much one of these wonderful machines will cost (well the one's that require 'little'...and I mean 'little' human intervention)...I presume they will quiz said sole trader in order to confirm which costa expense was for a meeting and which one was 'personal.

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Replying to justsotax:
paddle steamer
By DJKL
06th Dec 2016 12:38

Do not think of AI as robot that walks about, think of a Bot as merely a bit of programming.

So cost is development of main processes and required interfaces to acquire the data. This is merely programming.

So open your laptop, look straight at the screen, and answer truthfully the questions that your personal digital accountant asks you, remember, he has facial pattern recognition software/ iris scan software that can detect lying.

Same applies to your GP, asks you questions and does certain diagnosis.

One of the really interesting questions now is, should parents encourage their offspring to attend university to enter a white collar knowledge based profession, or do they need to be more discerning? We have all heard the siren call story re the 29 crash, that when the shoeshine boy starts giving stock tips the exit is near; does the same thought process apply with university entrance aspiration with the current clamour for everyone to get a "degree" singularly missing the big picture re what will be useful in the 21st century.

I am currently involved with a significant refinance which involves first registration of title re the bulk of our property portfolio (needed re new standard securities), I am advised that once done all the old paper deeds will no longer be needed, we will have a pile of these returned to us (may wallpaper my office with the more interesting Victorian ones), but it does strike me that once everything on the register (and there is talk of a compulsory push re the remainder out there) that basic conveyancing, where no split of title involved, could become an automated process; why pay a solicitor £200 an hour for this when AI could probably do most of the work?

What about divorce where assets/earnings etc all keyed in and AI does basic determination of division etc;, just give right of appeal if wanted, would still deal with vast majority of uncontentious divorces.

I think there are a lot of tasks where ,once data is fully available in digital form, AI will easily replace humans- step one is getting digital data- we are going that way!!!

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By jbaccsol
06th Dec 2016 12:11

When it comes to sorting out the employers dashboard the Robots are welcome!

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Tornado
By Tornado
06th Dec 2016 12:27

The biggest problem with Mark Carney is that he makes self-fulfilling prophesies. If he says something is going to happen then if he has any control over that situation, it will happen, regardless of the consequences. We do not need this type of person in control of our central bank.

I think if the world was being run by computers, we would all be dead by now as we are illogical to the machine. The robots would have had no compunction in pressing the button to decimate mankind anywhere in the world as that would be the completely logical thing for them to do.

It is not a good idea for our lives to be ruled according to the way a computer analyses our facial expressions or by the way we speak, for example, as this kind of power given to machines would eventually place everyone of us in a position where the computer would control every part of our lives, a world where if the computer says 'NO' then that is it.

At the moment I am trying out my digital tax account. It contains many historical errors but there is no way to communicate with HMRC to tell them that their information is wrong and needs correcting. I am offered "Is there anything wrong with this page? which has a few set questions that are not relevant to my query and a free text field that is not long enough to say anything of substance. Submitting this results in an email telling me that a ticket has been raised but also closed as my message was incomplete.

This is rubbish and clearly the HMRC data banks are already being filled with seriously incorrect data and with HMRC trying as hard as they can not to speak to people, the situation can only get worse.

MTD will be a failure if HMRC depend on doing everything digitally and ignore the need for a meaningful interface between themselves and taxpayers.

It may be fun for students to experiment with 'new ideas'
at University, but a much more pragmatic approach is required when putting some of these ideas into practice. Team skills seem to be lacking in the MTD Team ... but perhaps that is because this is a human trait and computers do not work to that kind of program.

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Replying to Tornado:
paddle steamer
By DJKL
06th Dec 2016 12:56

But, interface ideas are going into practice.

In 2013/2014 my son was in his final year, he wrote some software for one of these virtual reality headsets as his dissertation, they were not particularly common.
Two and half or so years later " The Apprentice" has its candidates developing pretty ghastly games with similar kit, the slightly obscure becomes mainstream very quickly these days.

It is the same with touch sensitive hardware, between his third and fourth years he worked (during holidays) on a touch display information system and cubes that reacted to stimulus and used to aid learning, the HCI boundaries do keep changing and the advances in the academic world transfer very quickly to the commercial works- there are a fair number of tech companies "attached to Edinburgh University's AI faculty and they do talk, mix, share.

In effect the catch with most systems is humans, remove their malign presence and.........

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By cheekychappy
06th Dec 2016 12:44

I hope that the robots of the future are just like Bender, from Futurama.

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RLI
By lionofludesch
06th Dec 2016 12:54

Computers are actually very stupid.

My dad used to say "if somebody told you to stand in front of a train, would you do it ?"

Probably not. But a computer would.

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Replying to lionofludesch:
paddle steamer
By DJKL
06th Dec 2016 13:03

lionofludesch wrote:

Computers are actually very stupid.

My dad used to say "if somebody told you to stand in front of a train, would you do it ?"

Probably not. But a computer would.

The trick with AI is its ability to learn- once AI can learn from experience (ouch -hot) life becomes very interesting.

One of the current limitation re AI is the concept of harnessing it with the mechanics of a robotic body, but if is is a mere digital data processor, things may be different.

Have a look at the best university in the UK's website here;

http://www.edinburgh-robotics.org/research

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Tornado
By Tornado
06th Dec 2016 13:32

There is a big difference between our lives being determined by AI and the use of robotics.

We see cereal factories churning out millions of packets of cereal with just a handful of people, cars that are largely made and assembled by robots, even farm equipment ploughing straight lines using GPS. If we wanted to mine coal again, most of the work would be carried out by robots today, no need to send men down.

Yet just on TV today, the revival of British manufacturing, partly already in progress and partly due to the Bexit vote, is struggling as there are not enough skilled people around to operate the machines.

These robots work for us and do not control our lives, but the Experians, Googles and myriad others do. More and more data is farmed by these organisations on a daily basis but, as has been seen in countless films, something goes wrong. Massive viral attacks, widespread hacking, undetectable theft and simple communications breakdown are inevitable and hopefully us ordinary humans will be around to pick up the pieces and start again.

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By Black Friday
06th Dec 2016 13:42

I've never heard such rubbish.
Go back to the 1980's and see just how far computers have (not) improved.

Back then we had word processors, spread sheets etc. which did exactly the same thing that Word & Excel do today. We had every application that we have today, the only difference is that computers are now faster and we have pretty interfaces instead of the old DOS prompt.

AI is a pipe dream that won't happen in our lifetime. Anyone looking sensibly at the constant failures of self-drive cars can see that they will cause carnage on our roads, yet people like Carny think we should use such a flawed and ridiculous concept run our businesses?

Imagine AI running our tax system. It would be "logical" to take 100% of what people earn, then give them an "allowance" just enough to keep them fed and sheltered when not working.

Why waste tax on the elderly, they are no longer financially viable units so exterminate them. The sick and disabled too.

Why waste taxes on armies when we could simply nuke all our enemies (ie every other country) then no longer need an army.

I wonder where Mr Carny thinks it will end?

The man is a joke.

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Replying to Black Friday:
paddle steamer
By DJKL
06th Dec 2016 15:29

A few developments:-

Online banking

Large amounts of accounting data transferred/shared.

Communications via e mail, facebook etc- even this forum is here to communicate data. Intelligent (or less intelligent) online Bots that interface with users are already in use.

Systems where using OCR/ Plusgiro etc electronic bill payment receives and allocates payments. (Sweden is a fair few years ahead, I have been using the Swedbank system re my account there for over 10 years, no cheque books etc, invoices received have an OCR/plusgiro reference ,which is a mandatory field when making payment)

Intenet ordering- be it Amazon or others. Parcel tracking.

Card swipe machines rather than bundles of credit card slips.

RTI submission

There have been a few changes since the 1980s.

Unifying Finances

When all payments are digital (it will happen eventually), all invoice raising is digital,( I raise a sales invoice it goes to you as a purchase invoice and auto populates your records), all stock systems are integrated (my out goes into transit to become your in), all wages records integrate (well-RTI gives scope), it does not look that tricky for everything to automate- imho the only question is time not if, it may take far longer than we all think, it may not be in my lifetime, but it will surely happen sometime, and when it does the impact with be significant for all parties currently involved within financial recording and reporting.

AI will imho eventually automate processes previously done by humans, in effect large swathes will become untouched by human hand.I do not like the idea, I see social upheaval and change arising, I am not a supporter, but I am a realist, business/fashions/practices change, why is finance immune (I sit writing this in an area of Edinburgh named after beaver hat makers- they all went,only the name remains, why not a large proportion of accounts/back off staff?)

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Replying to DJKL:
RLI
By lionofludesch
06th Dec 2016 15:42

DJKL wrote:
I have been using the Swedbank system re my account there for over 10 years, no cheque books etc ....

Interesting. We were, of course, due to ditch cheques in 2016 ourselves but the banks were unable to come up with some sensible system for the few transactions which still require them.

I still issue cheques. Sure, I could transfer my niece's Xmas present direct to her bank account but I'd need to know her bank details then, wouldn't I ? So it's easier to send a cheque.

I used to use about 150 cheques a year. More like 20 these days.

I'm not sure that a Rip van Winkle returning to Castleford from the 1960s would be shocked by banking advances during his time asleep. He'd be more likely to be amazed at being able to walk down Aire Street without wading through the soap drifts.

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Replying to lionofludesch:
paddle steamer
By DJKL
06th Dec 2016 16:26

lionofludesch wrote:

DJKL wrote: I have been using the Swedbank system re my account there for over 10 years, no cheque books etc ....

Interesting. We were, of course, due to ditch cheques in 2016 ourselves but the banks were unable to come up with some sensible system for the few transactions which still require them.

I still issue cheques. Sure, I could transfer my niece's Xmas present direct to her bank account but I'd need to know her bank details then, wouldn't I ? So it's easier to send a cheque.

I used to use about 150 cheques a year. More like 20 these days.

I'm not sure that a Rip van Winkle returning to Castleford from the 1960s would be shocked by banking advances during his time asleep. He'd be more likely to be amazed at being able to walk down Aire Street without wading through the soap drifts.

I am down to about 2 or 3 cheques a year- keep becoming a great uncle, they seem to be like buses, wait years then all at the same time.

I have been impressed with the Swedish system, order timber from local timber merchant pay online or in store with card and the local tool shop does not take cash. We had a break in early this year and I had to fly over to check/make good, they had nicked my Makita so needed new power drill to do repairs, I took out cash, went to shop to pay their inflated price (power tools are about 30-40% more than here) only to be told wasted my time with the cash, had to pay by card.

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By raybackler
08th Dec 2016 12:03

@DJKL and "A few developments"

You are right - these things have changed the profession and we have had to go with the flow. Technological progress has lead to lower fees to compensate and so we have to be fleeter of foot to survive, but our productivity has increased. Because of this we are now more skilled than in the past and even harder to replace with robots.

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By Portia Nina Levin
06th Dec 2016 13:52

And there we have it. Nothing is idiot-proof, because we can see that the idiot is in a permanent state of improvement.

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By justsotax
06th Dec 2016 16:55

and I thought all of the jobs would be lost to India (so they said a few years ago)...mind you they said that SA would lead to everyone dealing with their own Returns....

Or perhaps some will remember how phones were slimming down to almost credit card size...only to find that the screen wasn't big enough to accommodate what people actually wanted...

Yes tech is all well and good...then [***] happens...because it is humans that have to use it...

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By richardterhorst
08th Dec 2016 11:11

I give it 5 years and we just become tax advisors.

Lets be honest, statutory accounts and the like you can automate with algoritms. How many times do you engage your brain with them? Unless a complex client I suggest rarely.

Receipt bank and similar will capture most data already. Bank feeds sort bank out. Bookkeepers will be more important but they will be essentially be admin people.

Tax on the other hand. Given the politicians and HMRC there will be plenty to work with that cannot be automated (Despite HMRC's pathetic attempt)

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By raybackler
08th Dec 2016 11:57

At the risk of sounding like I'm in a pantomime, all I can say is "Oh no it won't". All of what you say is true up to a point, but it is the judgement applied to the bookkeeping that converts them into statutory accounts. Try calculating even a simple telephone prepayment/accrual without reading the contents of the bill to get the rental and call periods covered. Receipt Bank and most accounting systems do not capture this data. Bank feeds can have personal transactions mixed in with them. Bookkeeping requires manual intervention to get it right. The rules on VAT, affect how the bookkeeping is done. Come to think of it with all of the daftness in our profession, maybe I am in a pantomime.

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By kjevans
08th Dec 2016 11:32

The rise of the robots has been being predicted for over 50 years. What ever happened to the automated society where everyone had additional leisure time and enough money to enjoy that I was promised at school? I think we now work more hours than we did back then.

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RLI
By lionofludesch
08th Dec 2016 11:47

Automation is something that puts a subheading at the bottom of one page and the text of the paragraph at the top of the next.

Real people would never do that. That's how far automation has come. Not very far.

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By Dib
08th Dec 2016 13:22

I asked if robots would take us over but the computer said "no", didn't you HAL?

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By Pygmy
09th Dec 2016 13:43

You have to replace clients with robots before MTD can kill the accountant

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Replying to Pygmy:
RLI
By lionofludesch
09th Dec 2016 13:53

Will the robot be able to claim AIA on the cost of himself ?

Or would there be an element of duality ?

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