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9am Lowdown: Remain takes the lead

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19th Apr 2016
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Good morning, here is Tuesday’s 9am Lowdown.

* * *

Remain takes the lead

A poll conducted on behalf of The Telegraph has put the support for a vote to remain in the EU nearly 10 points ahead of Brexit.

The Independent reports: “The ORB survey for the Telegraph found that if the referendum was held now some 52% of respondents would back remaining a member of the EU, with 43% for leave, down five points on the previous poll.

Worries that remain voters weren’t going to turn up on the day are also calming: 65% of remain supporters said they planned to vote.

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Ex-solicitor pretends to work for HMRC

An ex-solicitor who pretended to work for HMRC in an attempt to retrieve information which resulted in him being struck off has been fined £15,015 and ordered to pay prosecution costs of £210,000.

According to Eagle radio, Paul Baxendale-Walker tried duping the law society by contacting them on forged HMRC letter headed paper.

During his sentencing, Judge Peter Moss said: "You determined by trick and underhand means to pursue an individual who was correctly employed by the SRA (Solicitors Regulatory Authority). Such people are entitled to be protected from the harassment you subjected them to.”

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Employers who “turn a blind eye” could face limitless fines

Employers who “turn a blind eye” to their employees assisting a client in tax evasion could be faced with limitless fines, as proposed in a new HMRC consultation document.

According to the HMRC consultation: “In large multinational organisations decision making is often decentralised and may be taken at a level lower than that of the board of directors, with the effect that the corporation can be shielded from criminal liability.”

Reporting on the story, The Independent said, the new rules will encourages senior members to pay closer attention to what their employees are doing and remove their "excuse of ignorance” in response to the actions of multinationals.

Replies (10)

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By Vote Leave
19th Apr 2016 15:16

False polls

Is this the same poll that said Labour would win the last election by a landslide?  

The British public are being fed a series of blatant lies by the remain campaign. The fact that these lies are being propagated by both Cameron, Corbyn, Farron, & Sturgeon, shows that none of them are fit to lead our country.

Not only are fear tactics being used by the remain campaign, but falsified reports are being peddled in an attempt to con the public. 

Yesterday the discredited chancellor claimed that a so called report by the treasury shows that Britain will be far better off staying in the EU - but he very carefully failed to point out that his figures assumed another THREE MILLION IMMIGRANTS, and, that every one of them would be working, paying taxes, and not using our public services. 

Do they really think the British public is stupid enough to believe their so called reports - what next, weapons of mass destruction? 

 

Thanks (1)
By SteveHa
19th Apr 2016 15:56

Not to mention that the "Remain" team are peddling opinion and speculation as "Fact".

Thanks (2)
Chris M
By mr. mischief
20th Apr 2016 05:49

63%

By far the most reliable "poll" is on Betfair.  Because in that "poll" you have to actually put money on the table.  It has a consistent track record over the past 20 years of being more accurate than the "poll of polls" which is the most accurate poll of the pollsters for statistical reasons there is no time to go into here.

On the main Brexit thread I am posting the Betfair odds weekly to prevent that thread being contaminated by spurious claims of momentum and the like.

So far £5m matched on Betfiar, 63% stay and 37% leave are the latest odds.  4% shift towards leave in past week or so which definitely is significant but unless it continues then Remain will win this.

Thanks (1)
Replying to DaveyJonesLocker:
By ShirleyM
20th Apr 2016 10:45

Is it really?

mr. mischief wrote:

By far the most reliable "poll" is on Betfair.  

I want Brexit, and will vote Brexit, but would put my money on Remain.

Thanks (0)
By Moonbeam
20th Apr 2016 10:20

MOSS and Brexit

I am just in the process of informing a programmer of all the import requirements to Xero for sales invoices and receipts from a third party where MOSS is involved. It is a ghastly nightmare, and I would be pretty fed up if the UK exits from the EEC after what I'm going through.

On the other hand, not being a member of the EEC would make VAT returns (or purchase tax returns, whatever they get called) probably a lot easier.

But I'm voting to remain anyway!

 

 

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Chris M
By mr. mischief
20th Apr 2016 14:04

Yes it is

See my posts in the other thread about the accuracy of Betfair with regard to elections stretching back to 2000 and the dimpled chads.

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Replying to Robert Wilkinson:
By SteveHa
21st Apr 2016 08:36

So you provide statistics to prove that one set of statistics is more statistically accurate than another?

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By mwngiol
20th Apr 2016 15:39

Dimpled chads

So much less threatening than pimpled chavs.

Thanks (1)
Red Leader
By Red Leader
20th Apr 2016 16:58

@Mr Mischief

Please provide a link to the other thread you mention.

Thanks (0)
Chris M
By mr. mischief
21st Apr 2016 13:03

Statistics

https://www.accountingweb.co.uk/article/cameron-fires-eu-referendum-star...

See other threads from years agoon bets and statistics. I made over £70k in betting before over 100 bookmakers put me on £5 maximum bets and I gave up.  Some of those bets were on politics though the majority were on sports - mainly tennis and rugby.

Whatever you are betting on it is important to be aware where the most accurate data is to be found.  "Fading the public" is one of the highest profit margin bets you can ever get, whether it is on the World Series, whether the Colts can go 17 of 17, whether the record UK temperature will go or it will snow on Christmas Day, and politics.

Very often an idea takes hold of the public that is just plain wrong.  In this specific case I would be looking to bet on Remain if I had evidence to suggest that a false bandwagon for Leave was rolling.  If I were still an active punter I would not be betting right now as I have no such evidence.  There is decent short term momentum for Leave but it has not gripped the public enough to create a high profit margin bet.

Thanks (1)