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General election starts here

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30th Mar 2015
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The official general election campaign has got underway with the dissolution of parliament and the rushing through of Finance Bill (No. 2) 2015.

The Finance Bill, the second for this session of parliament, received Royal Assent on 26 March and became the Finance Act 2015. It was published on 24 March allowing just a single day to get it through parliament.

The bill has paved the way for a new diverted profits tax, an increase in the income tax personal allowance and further support for the oil and gas industry.

However there was an absence of clauses amending the treatment of trivial benefits in kind for employees as well as a Labour Party proposal for a new clause to require a report on the impact of VAT.

The race for Number 10 started in earnest after parliament was dissolved under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.

With less than six weeks left until the big day, David Cameron warned voters that they faced a stark choice between him and Ed Miliband.

Miliband is shortly expected to set out Labour's policies on business and will warn that Cameron’s promise of a referendum on EU membership also risked a loss of British influence.

As usual AccountingWEB will be covering the general election in the coming weeks with party manifesto and tax policy analysis as well as a look at the accountancy candidates putting themselves forward on 7 May.

Replies (25)

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By johnjenkins
30th Mar 2015 13:50

Right I'll start the ball rolling

with a thought that most will find stupid. Labour do not want to do  deal with SNP. The Tories do not want to do a deal with UKIP.

I think we are all pretty sure it's going to be a hung parliament.

So what's left.............DaDah a conlab coalition. If you really really think about it, not such a bad idea.

The USA is going to have to deal with it later, so why don't we get in first.

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By Discountants
30th Mar 2015 14:15

On the most recent polls it will not only be a hung parliament but, as John says above the only viable 2-coalition government would be Con-Lab.

All others coalitions would either be:

A minority government (i.e. less seats than all the remaining parties and so vunerable to a no-confidence vote and extremely vunerable to a backbench rebellion by just a handful of MP's)

It is just concievable that the SNP and either Labour or the Conservatives could form a coalition with a majority in the low single figures (and with two of the latest polls this is suggesting a majority of , wait for it, one!), however such a deal would probably be politucal suicide for Labour or the Conservatives.

We have had such a Grand Coalition before: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Second_National_ministry&redirect=no

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By johnjenkins
30th Mar 2015 14:40

Let's take it a stage further

I always thought that DC and Cleggy got together before the last election.

Now David Milliband wouldn't do a deal with DC but I'm not so sure about Ed.

Both DC and Ed really don't want to pull out of the EU. They both want the NHS to work. They would both make stringent cuts. They both want to do something about immigration.

To me it just seems like a bit of fine tuning and we're there.

Who knows we might even get a Government of the people, for the people. I don't think we will ever go back to the one party rule, purely because they both made a hash of it last time and the electorate don't forget these things in a hurry. 

The hard core voters will hate it but the floaters will love it. Who knows we might actually get more than 65% vote at the next election.

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By ireallyshouldknowthisbut
30th Mar 2015 14:51

.

We might well get some stability with an effective con/lab coallition (official or unofficial) to pass anything, or get all the smaller parties to agree which is unlikely to happen.  

Be much harder to put through daft stuff. 

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Out of my mind
By runningmate
30th Mar 2015 15:19

My great fear is of a conservative majority government.  I feel that is the most likely outcome - but that may just be my natural pessimism!

I think a grand coalition would be a gift to every fringe party for 2020.  I do not see it as at all likely.

RM

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By johnjenkins
30th Mar 2015 15:37

@runningmate

I fear a Labour or Tory government. I don't think either have the ability to run this country on their own and I don't think the electorate do also.

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Replying to Sarah_Jane:
Out of my mind
By runningmate
30th Mar 2015 17:05

Agreed

johnjenkins wrote:

I fear a Labour or Tory government. I don't think either have the ability to run this country on their own and I don't think the electorate do also.

I agree.  The most we can hope for is a government which does precisely nothing for the next 5 years - leaving the Great British public & businesses to get on with things.  Sadly politicians need to be seen to be dealing with some crisis in order to make themselves look good - so they are always doing something (unfortunately!).

RM

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By User deleted
30th Mar 2015 16:33

Conlab

Well from a quick scan of their main policies this morning I can't see much of a difference between the Tories and Labour so they might as well join up. The Libdems sounded (in the main) a bit wishy-washy - it's all a bit 'try to...' and 'work towards'. I'd rather vote for someone who says 'we're definitely going to..' even if they're lying because at least they've got some enthusiasm. 

Of course they could just join forces and actually work towards making the country better instead of competing to look good. But then that wouldn't be politics.

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By johnjenkins
30th Mar 2015 16:43

@Flash

You're right it wouldn't be politics. The balance has got to be just right for the thing to work. If they did get together that'll blow Boris's chances of being PM.

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Replying to NickClayton.aol.com:
By ShirleyM
30th Mar 2015 17:48

Boris as PM?

johnjenkins wrote:

You're right it wouldn't be politics. The balance has got to be just right for the thing to work. If they did get together that'll blow Boris's chances of being PM.

Just the thought of it makes me want the sick bucket! If you want a comedian in charge, how about Jimmy Carr! Then again ....

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Replying to lionofludesch:
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By User deleted
31st Mar 2015 10:49

Agree

ShirleyM wrote:

johnjenkins wrote:

You're right it wouldn't be politics. The balance has got to be just right for the thing to work. If they did get together that'll blow Boris's chances of being PM.

Just the thought of it makes me want the sick bucket! If you want a comedian in charge, how about Jimmy Carr! Then again ....

Boris as PM would make us the laughing stock everywhere. He's a buffoon. You can't take him seriously. Permanently scruffy (I know am too but I'm not representing constituents or my country). See if there's anywhere doing a special offer on buckets Shirley.... 

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Out of my mind
By runningmate
31st Mar 2015 11:43

On the other hand Boris may be a shrewd operator masquerading as a buffoon in the same way as Nigel is (not) just a jolly bloke having a pint in his local.

Boris may have considered that trying & failing to look statesmanlike would not be a good look for him!

Whereas Cameron dressed uncomfortably in a hi-vis jacket & hard hat looks like a politician trying very hard to look like 'one of us' (& failing miserably).  Osborne twerking on the Sun's front page was more credible.

RM

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By mjshort
31st Mar 2015 12:42

Hope for a hung parliament

So that the dodgy chancers can get nothing done and leave us alone for the next 4 years

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By ShirleyM
31st Mar 2015 12:47

Shrewd?

Do you think he is shrewd by making himself look like a buffoon? 

Would 'being taken seriously' put other peoples expectations too high, whereas if he plays the buffoon then nobody expects anything of him at all?

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Out of my mind
By runningmate
31st Mar 2015 16:05

Boris

I suspect Boris of actually doing things whilst we are distracted by him looking like a buffoon.

RM

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paddle steamer
By DJKL
31st Mar 2015 23:20

Cannot see Con Lab

Con Lab would not be a good move for Con, IMHO better to let Lab try and then possibly fail. Max 5 years out of office for Con but quite possibly far less.

There are a few signs (faint but growing) that Lab is heading for a large scale internal fallout, the left of the party are not happy with the moderates and SNP progress (seats) up here may be the final straw that sees Scottish Labour casting of the mainstream UK party

 The SNP will (are) campaign (campaigning) on the fact that Lab have deserted their faithful up here and Lab in Scotland may well perceive their only chance of long term survival, if the forecast SNP swing in May, is thereafter to lurch to the left to regain their territory. They really cannot do this whilst joined at the hip with Lab (UK) and Lab (UK) cannot carry England in future if they also lurch to the left. So to me a good chance of a parting of the ways post May.

Now if I were the Cons I would just let  Lab fall apart trying either to form an alliance or run a minority, give Lab a Lab/Con coalition and the radical Lab left wing does not control the party, in a Lab/Con alliance they can be ignored by Lab.

So if I were Con, and subject to the numbers, I would let Lab get on with trying to form some sort of government safe in the knowledge (depending on arithmetic) that it will probably fail, best long term way to convince the public they are not safe with Lab is let Lab show they cannot even manage their own party let alone the country.

Then again, maybe the real numbers will differ widely from the current polls, this is certainly one election where staying up may be worthwhile

 

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By johnjenkins
01st Apr 2015 10:33

@DJKL

Under normal circumstances I would agree. However, the recovery is fragile and needs nurturing and IMV that can only be done with a Con Lab coalition. I would have liked to see another 5 years of this coalition, but that certainly won't be.

If I was Ed I would ditch Scotland (they will eventually get independence in a few years anyway) and make as much headway in England as possible. That would give him a bit of negotiating leverage.

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Replying to paul.benny:
paddle steamer
By DJKL
01st Apr 2015 11:26

Not sure.....

johnjenkins wrote:

Under normal circumstances I would agree. However, the recovery is fragile and needs nurturing and IMV that can only be done with a Con Lab coalition. I would have liked to see another 5 years of this coalition, but that certainly won't be.

If I was Ed I would ditch Scotland (they will eventually get independence in a few years anyway) and make as much headway in England as possible. That would give him a bit of negotiating leverage.

Not sure political reasoning from all parties is geared to what is needed,  they all never struck me as thinking of country over party.

If the Conservatives take the long view they may see dumping Scotland (Sure they never liked the Unionist bit of the name anyway and the panda jokes are wearing a bit thin), let Labour possibly  tear itself apart, let the Nats march on Westminster and be unpleasant to everyone and with the Liberals (or whatever they are now called) damaged goods there is only one natural party who could take power for probably quite a time.

Lets face it, from a how it plays with the electorate viewpoint they can blame the last five years on Labour and what they inherited, the excuse gets a bit thin in the second term so serving the next term may not do them any favours. If I was thinking the long game ,and I were Conservative ,I might well not be that unhappy if post May I was the main part of the opposition.

Then again, politicians like the trappings, the cars , the yes ministers etc, can they exercise some self restraint? Maybe not.

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By johnjenkins
01st Apr 2015 11:43

I think DC

really wants a second term. Just think what that would do to his street cred in the EU when he's job seeking.

Out of the two I think DC will get stronger as the campaign goes on and the Tories will get a majority (not a working majority).

Let's think another 5 years down the line. Ed doesn't get a majority this time so how can he get street cred for next time? His only way is to do a deal with DC.

DC isn't bothered about 5 years time cos he ain't gonna be there. It's highly likely that Labour will get in cos we will probably be in the start of another recession which will be blamed on the Tories.

What a con-lab coalition will bring is stability for our country for the next few years.

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Replying to DJKL:
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By DJKL
01st Apr 2015 12:56

If Ed does not get...

johnjenkins wrote:

really wants a second term. Just think what that would do to his street cred in the EU when he's job seeking.

Out of the two I think DC will get stronger as the campaign goes on and the Tories will get a majority (not a working majority).

Let's think another 5 years down the line. Ed doesn't get a majority this time so how can he get street cred for next time? His only way is to do a deal with DC.

DC isn't bothered about 5 years time cos he ain't gonna be there. It's highly likely that Labour will get in cos we will probably be in the start of another recession which will be blamed on the Tories.

What a con-lab coalition will bring is stability for our country for the next few years.

If Ed does not get into number 10 the faithful will wield the knife, short of getting some form of coalition he is a "dead man walking"

If DC loses office he will also depart.

But irrespective of what may or may not be good for the country a Lab Con is imho just impossible  for both post doing the deed.( it has the hallmark of an ill advised fling at an office party and never hearing the last of it from everyone else)  The main Con argument is always the economy is not safe with Lab, join forces with them and come 2020 where is the Con campaign?  Lab on the other hand need NHS not safe with Con etc, post a coalition they will also have no room to argue in 2020. ( Honest, we may have had a coalition, but we never loved one another, we got together for the good of the country)

If Lab support Con in office ,Scotland is gone for them (may be already), they will always be tarred with the brush of letting Con stay in office- Libs up here are partially suffering from this failing partly from swinging the youth vote, post the Cleggers does politics broadcasts in 2010, and then shafting them re the tuition fee hike. This is strange re Scotland as Scottish students up here usually don't pay any tuition fees anyway, but as there are a lot of students up here from south of the border it appears to be solidarity with their southern colleagues. Clegg, the students' poster boy, is now viewed as a sordid dalliance by my daughter's friends (All too young to vote last time, but his betrayal hurts ; oh to be old and cynical re politicians)  There was some poll yesterday showing how much more popular Ed was compared with DC up here, hardly surprising, Attila the Hun would poll better in Scotland  than DC provided he confirmed he was not a Conservative.  I think up here if you support the enemy you become the enemy, anyone befriending the Conservatives will burn their bridges re their Scottish faithful. (I still have the odd friend/ acquaintance who, if you mention the blessed Margaret, become near rabid)

I strongly suspect that Scotland is pretty much leaving the Union, just do not know yet when (Await 2016 SNP manifesto with interest) and I will have to take a view as to when I flee south on the back of the English father card (Hope they spin matters out until after I retire)

However my political senses have never been the best,  as a student I  listened to David Steel at Edinburgh University in the early 1980s ,not that long after his, "Go back to your........ and prepare for government" speech, and actually believed that change was possible, so maybe all my predictions/ thoughts ought to be taken with a pinch of salt.

 

 

 

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By johnjenkins
01st Apr 2015 14:21

@DJKL

So we are agreed then. Scotland will become independent (this time there will be a bit more planning as to the currency to use) and there will be a very uneasy coalition between con/lab.

We have had an effective coalition so far so change can work. I really do feel that the days of the two parties are gone. !4 years with Tory and we ended up in a mess. Umpteen years with labour and we ended up in a mess.

I think the big problem with the two main parties is that there is no born leader. Maggie and Tony (like or hate them) had charisma. All we've got now is Boris (bless).

USA are going to have to come to terms with a similar coalition in order to survive.

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Replying to lionofludesch:
paddle steamer
By DJKL
01st Apr 2015 15:21

I see independence as a when not an if but not con/lab

johnjenkins wrote:

So we are agreed then. Scotland will become independent (this time there will be a bit more planning as to the currency to use) and there will be a very uneasy coalition between con/lab.

We have had an effective coalition so far so change can work. I really do feel that the days of the two parties are gone. !4 years with Tory and we ended up in a mess. Umpteen years with labour and we ended up in a mess.

I think the big problem with the two main parties is that there is no born leader. Maggie and Tony (like or hate them) had charisma. All we've got now is Boris (bless).

USA are going to have to come to terms with a similar coalition in order to survive.

I see Scottish independence as a given now, not sure re timing and still believe it is the most misguided step that can be taken, but I  do expect it will happen within next 10-15 years.

But I do not see a Labour/Conservative coalition as likely in the near term, I think any such attempt would fracture Labour and ,subject to UKIP, could see splintering at the edge of the Conservatives. I more see it that Conservatives will in the fullness of time ,and eventually in the absence of the Scottish seats, become the natural party of power in RUK (Providing they do not let the EU question rent them asunder)

I cannot  envisage consensus politics blossoming within the UK in the short term, it just feels alien. Then again ten years ago I would not have believed that Scotland might come so close to leaving the UK, so my finger is not really on the pulse, however as those who experienced the 1970s and 1980s fade out of the reckoning, and new generations of voters arrive, maybe I should start embracing the unthinkable.

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By johnjenkins
01st Apr 2015 16:33

I think

Scotland will be independent within the next 5 years.

DC doesn't want to pull out of the EU but he also knows he won't get anywhere with negotiations. So he can blame that one on Labour keeping some Tories happy.

I think this will be one of the highest turnouts of a general election. We have to do better than 65%.

I think there should be an extra box on the ballot paper saying would you accept a con/lab coalition. Let's face it in the modern world there aren't too many differences among the main parties. There can't be can there.

Years ago, for me the Tories made 2 cakes whereas Labour distributed 1 cake evenly.

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Replying to Wilson Philips:
paddle steamer
By DJKL
01st Apr 2015 18:36

5 Years is tight

johnjenkins wrote:

Scotland will be independent within the next 5 years.

DC doesn't want to pull out of the EU but he also knows he won't get anywhere with negotiations. So he can blame that one on Labour keeping some Tories happy.

I think this will be one of the highest turnouts of a general election. We have to do better than 65%.

I think there should be an extra box on the ballot paper saying would you accept a con/lab coalition. Let's face it in the modern world there aren't too many differences among the main parties. There can't be can there.

Years ago, for me the Tories made 2 cakes whereas Labour distributed 1 cake evenly.

SNP will need to :

a. Put Neverendum2- the return of the Eck ,in their 2016 manifesto

b. Win  on seats and on percentage vote  (possibly with over 50% of vote cast)

c. Somehow weasel out of the Edinburgh Agreement (settled will etc- tricky one given they signed it)

d Convince Westminster they have a mandate and are expressing the will of Scottish people.

e. Get agreement to run version 2

f. Win version 2

g. Negotiate terms re the divorce

Now given lack of progress on all these matters pre Neverendum 1, the Rise of the Eck, what chance any get sorted pre Neverendum 2, earliest that will be is 2017 more like 2018.

I see seven years as a maybe with a good tail wind, ten years if Westminster wants to be difficult and more if it wants to be very difficult.

You think they can split in less time than it took to build a £40 million building for near £400 million or build half the Edinburgh tram network originally envisaged, c/mon, this is Scotland, we will still be arguing about who gets to keep what from the drinks cupboard. (I accept they appear to be on target on the new bridge, one out of three)

 

 

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By johnjenkins
02nd Apr 2015 10:52

My mind

was running away without a thought for the practicalities. However I think a decision will be made after this election, providing the SNP run away with Scotland, which will mean that the election 5 years on will be effectively ref2. I don't believe Alex and co will leave it much later especially given the momentum independence has achieved.

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