Jubilee weekend: the impact on the economy

Most of us will be taking an additional day off work for the Queen's Diamond Jubilee, but will the lost working hours prolong the recession or provide a fillip to the flagging retail and leisure sectors?

As revealed in the Bank of England’s May inflation report, the double bank holiday is expected to knock 0.5 percentage points off Q2 GDP, hindering efforts to bring the economy out of recession as the Eurozone crisis worsens.

 

Last year a bank holiday for the Royal wedding hit output by 0.4%, but overall the economy was able to recover, as is hoped with the impact of the London Olympics which is expected to offset the fall in Q3.

Mervyn King told the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee in March that the Jubilee celebrations would have a similar impact on the economy to last year’s wedding when recovery stalled.

The BoE’s chief economist Spencer Dale added this month that, “The Jubilee will have a slightly bigger effect, in part because it’s happening in June rather than April, so the ability for companies to make up that output within the quarter will be that much less.”

Last month the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) calculated that the average bank holiday costs the economy £2.3bn.

Also see
Editor's blog: How will you spend the Jubilee weekend? 
Let us know what you think the impact of the double bank holiday will be on your business or sector.

Continued...

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Comments

Additional TWO days

halesir | | Permalink

Monday 4 June has replaced the Spring Bank Holiday usually occurring a week earler than this year. The only "additional" day is Tuesday 5 June. Unless, that is, you are fortunate enough to work for an employer who has always given two days at Spring Bank. In which case there is no "additional" day.

listerramjet's picture

is it that clear cut?

listerramjet | | Permalink

Even if it was everyone stopping work for the day (and clearly it isn't) this is an event that will be global news - selling the pomp and circumstance of Britain around the globe.  The Olympics is a diversion - the Jubilee will sell the brand in a way that nothing else can. 

"Mervyn King told the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee in March that the Jubilee celebrations would have a similar impact on the economy to last year’s wedding when recovery stalled.  Bit rich to blame this on the Royal Wedding.  Absolute nonsense in my book.

InflatableBassPlayer's picture

Jubilee weekend    1 thanks

InflatableBassPlayer | | Permalink

"Buying British"........yes,  at your street party you can have your Union Jack flags / drink out of Union Jack paper cups/ eat off Union Jack plates all made in China,   and watch on your 50" television.....with all proceeds going to the Far East.

 

“Secondly the ‘feel good’ factor makes for spending in general, and although we won’t all be wearing Union Jack dresses, there will be many new outfits to coincide with the start to the summer season.”  sadly not very many made in Britain though

 

No effect    2 thanks

The Black Knight | | Permalink

Government workers will have some more days off (no effect at all) those of us that run our own businesses or have to work for a living will still be at work and someone has to pay for everyones extra day off.(very generous of the government, never even asked if any small business could afford it) And to correct above it is only a Union Jack when on a boat!not a plate or dress.

 

Humbug!

Not everyone will be absent on Tuesday

grreg | | Permalink

To avoid accusations of hypocrisy all the moaners who whinge about the taxpayer supporting the Royal Families lifestyle each year will undoubtably be back at work on Tuesday.

They come out of the woodwork annually when the Civil List is reviewed and announced spurred on by the same repetitious newspaper articles that are printed on cue every year.

I hope they enjoy the day at work :)

Don't forget the leap year    1 thanks

microtutor1 | | Permalink

All the concern seems to be about the extra Bank Holiday, but it shouldn't be forgotten that the majority of workers worked an extra day on February 29th this year without even receiving any extra pay!

Here Here Microtutor!    1 thanks

cmclaren1978 | | Permalink

Surely 29th February and 5th June will cancel each other out?

 

It seems it is OK to put a dampner on things when it suits - but I didn't hear anything about Q1 GDP rising by 0.5%.............

Hear, hear!

Tony Crook | | Permalink

If having days off for holiday is having such an adverse effect on the economy (and, yes, 29 Feb and 5 June ought to cancel each other), where's the clamour from the Bank of England, economists and the government to cancel the Christmas and New Year's Day holidays.  That's THREE whole working days lost to production.  What's the impact of that on the economy? Let's bring back Cromwell and the Puritans and scrap Christmas.

Hear Hear Hear

wingco44 | | Permalink

With Christmas falling on a Tuesday this year - the very worst day - everyone will have Mon 24th off and virtually no-one will return to work Thursday or Friday 27th and 28th, and then it's New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.  I reckon that Christmas office parties will largely be taken on Friday 21st. I make that, including the weekends, at least a 12-day break in UK producrtion.

I've cancelled Christmas.

Scrooge.

Democratus's picture

Look it's not correct to reduce the economic output    2 thanks

Democratus | | Permalink

Look it's not correct to reduce the economic output of a nation just because someone 50 years ago inherited a position which happens to be head of state. A role for which the only qualification is that your parent had it!

Really is time we got a grip and removed this outdated and most undemographic of institutions.

And before anyone asks I am not taking a day off, and never would for such an event.

Paula Sparrow's picture

Acconting error

Paula Sparrow | | Permalink

Democratus wrote:

Look it's not correct to reduce the economic output of a nation just because someone 50 years ago inherited a position which happens to be head of state. A role for which the only qualification is that your parent had it!

Really is time we got a grip and removed this outdated and most undemographic of institutions.

And before anyone asks I am not taking a day off, and never would for such an event.

 

Golden Jubilee...that is so last decade!

welcome boost to a lot of other trades .

sarah douglas | | Permalink

Hi 

I off to London tomorrow from Glasgow to enjoy the celebration.  As a family were are really looking forward to it and catching up with friends .  I don,t agree that it will have a adverse effect .  They are just trying to find something they can blame the downturn on next.  I actually took today off as well and I do not plan to go back to work till Wednesday .  

Were staying in London as are a lot of are friends and as we are spending money.  All businesses need a break sometimes. 

Having been in Glasgow Merchant city today in this fabulous sunshine .  It felt like Christmas today except everyone was outside , the  restaurants and shops were heaving .  It is really nice when  so many are having the time off together and seeing so many people been happy.   So many people I know in Scotland are having parties.    This is once in a lifetime and I am not sure we will see it again.  So I am of the view whether are not you want to celebrate the Queen , use the  time to celebrate a good year for the UK with the Olympics coming up as well.  

I also cannot wait for the flame to go by our area .  I have my drum ready and have organised my boys school to make flames for the event .  I for one am really looking forward to the summer.    Been Irish I was moved by the Queens visit , and I really glad my son followed it all on Newsround , it was history in the making hence his excitement.  It was his idea to go to London for the Diamond Jubilee .  Hope everyone has a lovely weekend for what ever reason  they may choose.

Sarah Douglas Douglas accountancy and Bookkeeping Services Glasgow

 

Moaning whinger    1 thanks

chatman | | Permalink

grreg wrote:
all the moaners who whinge about the taxpayer supporting the Royal Families lifestyle each year will undoubtably be back at work on Tuesday.

They come out of the woodwork annually when the Civil List is reviewed and announced spurred on by the same repetitious newspaper articles that are printed on cue every year.

Would these be the same moaners who whinge about the lack of democracy inherent in a monarchy; the shortage of money for public services; the massive inequality in our country, denying a fair chance in life to many; the "vulgar freeloading buffoon" Prince Andrew (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1335519/WikiLeaks-Prince-Andrew-... ), and the wannabee-tampon Prince Charles (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-522508/Charles-Camillas-lovenest... ) who have done so much for this country's reputation abroad?

Simply calling people moaners and using ridiculous metaphors such as "come out of the woodwork" is hardly an intellectually valid argument, but then what else can you do if you don't have an intellectually valid argument? In response I could talk about ignorant servile lickspittles, too lazy or stupid to acquaint themselves with the facts before making a comment, but then where would we be?

I agree with many of the

esimps | | Permalink

I agree with many of the comments being made here and I feel that the GDP coverage is simply headline grabbing news and far too short-term to be considered a serious debate. The UK economy is flat and will remain flat, providing conditions in Europe don't cripple the UK in the coming months. My final thought is accountants and alike should all simply enjoy the celebrations and see the extra day off as a well earned break.

Emma // http://www.cheaperaccountant.co.uk

Democratus's picture

@ Paula    2 thanks

Democratus | | Permalink

Mea Culpa - obviously not following the greek/german freeloaders closely enough. I should have said Diamond.

 

Good spot

nogammonsinanundoubledgame's picture

@ microtutor1 (and supporters)

nogammonsinanun... | | Permalink

I believe your reference to having worked 29th February to be a red herring.  A sidereal year is roughly 365 and a quarter days long.  So by working on 29th February you have only worked three quarters of a day's "unpaid overtime" in that year, which is balanced by your having underworked a quarter of a day in each of the three consecutive adjacent years.  It is against those shorftalls that 29th Feb should be netted off, not 05 June.

With kind regards

Clint Westwood

Locutus's picture

Don't be a slave to GDP

Locutus | | Permalink

Whether you are a Royalist, Republican or neither, there are things far, far more important than whether GDP goes up in a straight line every quarter. Hope everyone enjoyed the long weekend. With the weekend weather in London it feels more like a case of 'long may she rain over us' but a good break nonetheless. These sorts of things don't come around much, so enjoy them when they come around.

If there was justification ....

Trevor Scott | | Permalink

... for a bank holiday then it is for a veterans day on 11th Nov. All other bank holidays should be scrapped as they are just another day off, for some people at least.