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After Brexit

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17th Jun 2016
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It looks increasingly like a vote for Brexit. Trying to look beyond that it then looks like the most chaotic time in British politics for years.

So I peered into the old crystal ball for what might happen next. There is an interesting list of possibilities, none of them very inviting.

The point is that the next two years at least will be taken up with negotiating the exit: We cannot just take our things and go.

It is also very likely that the economy will not go well in this period.

Possibilities include

  1. Cameron, acknowledging his massive political misjudgement in calling the referendum and losing it, falls on his sword and resigns as PM. A Tory leadership election brings in Boris and the queen asks him to form a government, with some of Cameron’s ‘remainers’ jumping ship to be part of Boris’s government. Boris leads the renegotiation but the House of Commons is still mainly against exit and makes life difficult for him. There will need to be a vote to accept the terms for leaving and that might need a second referendum
  2. Cameron stays put and Osborne produces the ferocious Budget he has promised. 65-plus Tories vote against and Labour and SNP will vote against this level of austerity. The Budget is rejected. Osborne resigns and Cameron calls an election
  3. Cameron carries on to negotiate the exit (and Osborne’s Budget is less fierce than he had suggested. The House of Commons is overwhelmingly in favour of the EU but there is a rump of about 100 to 200 brexiteers, mainly Tory but some Labour. The economy starts to tank
  4. Cameron is challenged as leader of Tory party, leaving to a second round of internal fighting and abuse. Boris? But with added confusion.
  5. Cameron faces a vote of confidence as PM – would he get it? There could be a realignment with him effectively having to run with support of the Labour right…
  6. In any case, Scotland will demand a new referendum on independence

Interesting times. 

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