Double dip recession?

Just wondering what members' views are on the prospects for the UK economy.  Should be expect a 'double dip' recession or is the current wave of pessimism overdone?

David

Comments
ShirleyM's picture

It's dire in the North

ShirleyM | | Permalink

As I have mentioned before, many small businesses have been trying to hold on in the hope of a recovery, but it is all falling apart now. Business are for sale at rock bottom prices, people are going self employed because they can't find jobs, and there are many more redundancies on the cards up North!

I noted on the news that some people (can't remember who) are calling for Northern England to have an additional parliamentary assembly, as in Wales, because the divide is just getting wider and wider.

Becky Midgley's picture

Hard times

Becky Midgley | | Permalink

We really are hitting on hard times, aren't we? In my own stupid little brain, I just don't understand what will happen to people, just to use the example of the job cuts in the police force which is nation-wide, where are they all supposed to get jobs when unemployment is already so high and in places like Bristol there are already too many candidates per job available? 

I think things are bad now, and I fear they will only get much, much worse. I'd like to see a redistribution of wealth myself, but I know that won't ever happen! 

On another, but not entirely un-related, note I read today that apparently, for the cost of sending 2 young men to jail for 4 years for setting up a facebook group that didn't actually cause a riot, you could employ 4 youth workers for 4 years working with up to 200 of the most alienated young people per year (800 young people in 4 yrs) or pay for a full time youth advice service in 8 large secondary schools (benefiting around 10,000 young people) for a year, or you could employ 24 young people on £15,000 for a year at a time when youth unemployment has reached over 20%...

My mind boggles, it really, really does!  What a complicated and multi-facted set of issues we currently face.

Daffy Duck's picture

I'm confused

Daffy Duck | | Permalink

A short while ago we were told that we must all work longer and retrire later, yesterday we were told that we must "guarantee" jobs for the under 24's, so where are all these jobs coming from?  At the same time technological advances mean more jobs are automated. Then we are "ordered" by the EU that we must allow east europeans to come here if they wish, and we must even pay them child benefits.

All these things contradict each other and it is obvious that the jobs simply are not there and never will be.

It strikes me that someone has got to make some major changes however unpopular they are with the EU, the trade unions, and so on. The problem is - what changes?

 

 

ShirleyM's picture

Becky    1 thanks

ShirleyM | | Permalink

You have touched a sore point with me.

The cost of crime is astronomical. It isn't just the cost of prisons, it is the cost of finding the perpetrators in the first place, and then putting them through the court procedure, not to mention the loss to the victims, and the Insurance companies. Of course, no amount of money can replace the loss of a loved one.

If people were not so greedy to get money, or goods, that they haven't earned then this country would be much better off. In my opinion the majority of criminals are NOT poverty stricken, but I do sympathise a little with those who steal food to eat!

johnjenkins's picture

Its called

johnjenkins | | Permalink

stagnation.

Euroland, and I include the UK in that has not been able to keep up with the advances that technology brings. So life jumps ahead without a care for what's really happening.

These next couple of years will see a complete change in economic thought processes. We know Communism and capitalism doesn't work. So it has to be somewhere in between. The chineses are trying hard to find a solution but they have their own problems.

As the old saying goes "it'll all come out in the wash" lets just hope not too much is ruined in the process.

weaversmiths's picture

Hard Times

weaversmiths | | Permalink

I was "temping" in the Department of employment Head Office in the 70s.  The building in Tothill Street housed the Work Research Unit and they did some pretty interesting stuff including forecasts.  eg. the workforce would be retiring at 58 to give jobs to those young people coming onto the job market in their droves after the baby boom.  This would be achieved through training as the skills in the UK had been so low durinig the last recession that when the jobs came along there was not enough skilled people to do them.  Government Training Centres were set up and people of all ages were genuinely training in manual skills.  I visited the one in Croydon and it seemed pretty impressive.  In 1978 I joined Manpower Services Commission where there were various grants available for training and there was an oversight of Industrilal Traininig Boardsto ensure that an apprentice did proper training and did not spend 5 years making the tea and sweeping the floor on the cheap. Of course, a change of government closed the GTCs and the thinking went out of the window,  Now the thinking seems to the the opposite and look where we are. We are quick to blame the government of the day - seems like we are right to do so.

John Stokdyk's picture

Just so you know...

John Stokdyk | | Permalink

We've got our very own Economy discussion group which is designed to try and bring forward evidence and data from the AccountingWEB community to illuminate all of the official statistics and pronouncements - many of which we post there.

It's been a bit quiet there. I reposted a comment from Shirley about the North-South divide, but so far no one has responded in the group (Any Answers thread was more active and illuminating).

Meanwhile, I was sitting in the bath listening to news about the FTSE index dropping 1% within the first hour of trading and pondered how this would affect the economy as a whole and the experiences of ordinary business people. One commentator on Radio 4 explained that as investors grew more risk averse, they were less willing to put their money into banks, who in turn would be less able to lend to business.

I'd appreciate views on how this plays out among you and your clients and am looking for someone to blog on thes issues. Any volunteers (or nominations)? If you are an economics nerd and proud of it, do come and join us in the Economy discussion group !

davidwinch's picture

In the wrong place, sorry!

davidwinch | | Permalink

John

I had a feeling I might be posting in the wrong place, sorry!

David

Daffy Duck's picture

Decadence    1 thanks

Daffy Duck | | Permalink

 John Stokdyk

"Meanwhile, I was sitting in the bath listening to news about the FTSE index dropping 1% within the first hour of trading and pondered how this would affect the economy as a whole and the experiences of ordinary business people. "

 

 

Such decadence - now we know where all the money is, people like you who can still afford hot water.

 

davidwinch's picture

A comment on government waste

davidwinch | | Permalink

Just a thought about cutting government expenditure.

The government currently spends much more than it receives in income.  Steps are being taken to address that by reducing expenditure whilst maintaining income - from taxes etc.  The plan is to minimise the effect of those cuts on the provision of vital services.

A hypothetical example.  Let's suppose a government department uses paperclips in its internal mail and outgoing correspondence.  Some bright spark realises that using staples would save money.  So instead of paperclips the department switches to staples, saving money and reducing waste / inefficiency.  An unambiguously good thing surely?

But the company that manufactured and supplied those paperclips loses an important customer.  That could lead to job losses or even the demise of the company.

My point is that one person's waste is another person's income.

Unless there is growth in the private sector, significantly reduced expenditure by government (even 'wasteful' expenditure) is going to lead to job losses.

There does not seem to be much sign of growth in the private sector at present.

I see much harder times ahead!

David

davidwinch's picture

@ShirleyM - the cost of crime!    1 thanks

davidwinch | | Permalink

ShirleyM

Don't knock the cost of crime - it's my source of income!

Thankfully there appears to be no sign of a 'recession' in crime.

David

Accounting Evidence Ltd

ShirleyM's picture

@david

ShirleyM | | Permalink

Which just goes to show ... there is always a silver lining :)

I know the prison officers, the police, the lawyers, and the specialists such as yourself, earn a living from crime, and I would hate to put you out of work, but it would still be wonderful if crime didn't exist.

Before anyone else says it ... yes, I know I am a dreamer.

John Stokdyk's picture

You can post wherever you like, David!

John Stokdyk | | Permalink

I'm really pleased to see some discussion of macro-economic issues. I was just feeling sorry for our lonely old Economy group and was hoping this thread would give it a bit of a jump start.

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