Budget 2013: Economic predictions

With the Budget announcement just 16 days away, economic predictions have been rolling in thick and thin.

Here are some of the most recent economic indicators from The Institute for Fiscal Studies, Ernst & Young ITEM Club, and the Office for Budget Responsibility.

IFS – Borrowing to take the strain until the election

• More pain on spending, jobs and, recent history suggests, tax after the election
• Public service spending in “unprotected” Whitehall departments could fall by a third between 2010–11 and 2017–18
• Departments continue with trajectories implied by current plans public sector employment will have fallen by 1.2 million by 2017–18
• Borrowing is forecast to be £64 billion higher in 2014–15 than he originally hoped

ITEM Club – UK still on course for weak growth in Q1

• No evidence to warrant a revision in Q4 GDP, so figures are unsurprising
• Heavy snow at the end of January raises concerns about Q1 and the chances of a further fall in GDP are relatively high
• Economic prospects are more promising further out with growth of about 1% still looking achievable for the year

OBR – January surplus boosted by QE transfers

What are your Budget economic predictions?