How close was the exit poll on election night?

Immediately after 10:00 p.m. on election night the verdict of an exit poll was announced.

Within a couple of hours when the first results came in much cold water was being poured on the exit poll results which, in any event, the commentators had already been describing as "surprising" (meaning they regarded the exit poll as likely to be adrift of the real votes).

So I checked back on what the exit poll had predicted and the final outcome (outcome in brackets).  The exit poll said:

Conservatives  307  (306)

Labour   255  (258)

Lib-Dems  59  (57)

Others   29   (28)

(In fact Thirsk has yet to vote, but is normally a safe Conservative seat.)

I have to say the exit poll looks pretty accurate to me!

David

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cymraeg_draig's picture

Good but no coconut

cymraeg_draig | | Permalink

The exit poll was way out David - it didnt predict a Lib-Con coalition :)

From the rumours I'm hearing the police investigations into vote rigging and election fraud could lead to a large number of votes being proven to be fraudulent in up to 20 seats all held (except one) by Labour MPs and in most cases the votes involved would be enough if cancelled to overturn the result.

My understanding of electoral law is that if a candidate or a voter wishes to lodge a complaint they have 3 weeks to do so (and pay a £5,000 fee), BUT, if criminal fraud is proven, the fraudulent votes are simply cancelled and the result ammended accordingly.

Seems some Labour MPs might be in Westminster a very short time indeed. 

I rather suspect that there could be a very large scandal breaking once investigations are completed as the rumours I've heard suggest this was not just a few individuals, but more organised than that. 

 

 

 

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