Save content
Have you found this content useful? Use the button above to save it to your profile.
AIA

Internet could reach its outer limits in 2007

by
23rd Jan 2007
Save content
Have you found this content useful? Use the button above to save it to your profile.

The internet is being stretched to its limits and may approach its total capacity, Deloittte warned in its annual predictions for the telecommunications industry, reports John Stokdyk.

"The internet is often regarded as an infinite resource. Unfortunately, this is not the case," warned the firm's Telecommunications Predictions report for 2007.

The main forces driving capacity to its limit are the growth in video traffic and a lack of investment in new capacity, the firm warned. During 2006, it noted that the volume of traffic flowing through the Amsterdam Internet Exchange exceeded one pedabyte per day (that's roughly one billion megabytes) and grew at a monthly average of 7.4%. The annual volume of the hub, which handles around 20% of all Europe's internet traffic, is estimated to be one exabyte (1,099,511,627,776 - or around one thousand billion - megabytes).

The number of global internet users broke through the one billion mark during September 2006, while peer-to-peer video downloads will continue to eat up bandwidth.

"The unrelenting growth in internet traffic during 2007 may overwhelm some of the internet's backbones," the report warned. Although new investment is needed to boost capacity, internet service providers are caught in the trap of falling retail prices.

On the basis of these projections, users are likely to experience delays and a drop in service quality levels, Deloitte predicted, and " SPs and backbone providers are expected to endure a period of relative discomfort in order to cope with growth".

The current assumption that bandwidth costs will continue to fall is likely to change. "ISPs are likely to have to raise their tariffs and even change their business models in order to make retail broadband provision sustainable," the firm warned.

Internet users have been here before during the late 1990s, before the advent of widespread broadband availability. As Deloitte notes, exponential growth in demand is one of the best problems any industry can have, but this time around the capacity issue could be more difficult and expensive to address.

Tags:

Replies (1)

Please login or register to join the discussion.

avatar
By User deleted
25th Jan 2007 16:13

We're all doomed... again
This won't be the first time that the internet should have ground to a halt, I've seen frequent warnings like these since 96 when too many people on dialups would bring the internet to its knees.

Thanks (0)