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IT Zone's 2007-08 predictions - you can't win 'em all

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31st Dec 2007
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There's a new trend emerging in the world of social, economic and technology clairvoyance with several commentators owning up to where they were right and wrong in their predictions for the year just passed. John Stokdyk reports.

In the spirit of comments from accounting blogger Dennis Howlett and BBC economics editor Evan Davis, here is a rundown on how my predictions for 2007 fared, with a summary of some of the things I missed, and pointers to a few trends for 2008.

Enhancements to self-assessment systems
A new Self Assessment Online site is still planned for April 2008, but with a year's extra grace for many of Lord Carter's e-filing deadlines and some very public data protection lapses within HMRC, attention has shifted faded from online filing to more basic IT housekeeping concerns. However, that hasn't stopped IT Zone contributor Simon Hurst from calling for the introduction of electronic filing sooner rather than later.

Construction industry scheme (CIS)
Thanks to another 12-month delay, HMRC's technology systems appear to have coped so far with the introduction of the new CIS scheme in 2007. But, as Rebecca Benneyworth noted in October, contractors have not fared so well - with only 56% subbmitng their returns on time during the scheme's first five months. If this pattern persists, HMRC will be reaping more than £100 million a year in late filing penalties and thousands of subcontractors face losing their gross pay status under the scheme. Expect

Rolling forecasts eclipse traditional budgeting processes
This was one where my own forecast might have been clouded by the hopes an aspirations of software suppliers such as James Fisher of Cartesis. Especially with the worsening economic outlook, companies will adopt more sophisticated forecasting and planning processes to ensure they stay on top of market trends. The year 2007 was less about rolling forecasts than a big roll-up within the industry as Microsoft, Oracle and SAP all moved to acquire niche suppliers such as OutlookSoft, Cartesis, Hyperion and Business Objects. With their marketing power focused on business intelligence and performance management tools, the market's momentum is likely to pick up in 2008 - but it will still take a few years before monthly rolling forecasts are the norm within UK finance departments.

Slow uptake for Windows Vista
Windows Vista was another instance where marketing claims failed to live up to expectations. As predicted, Microsoft had a tough job on its hands to convince users of the benefits of the new, "looking glass" style Vista interface. Impaq's Frank Bennett made a good bet when he said few SMEs would be running Vista on their desktop PCs by the end of 2007. Office 2007 has fared a little better among accountants than expected, and will be bolstered by more interesting enhancements to its capabilities with upgrades to SQL Server 2008.

XBRL - the internet financial reporting language
XBRL crops up every year in technology predictions, but has still failed to live up to fulfil its promise. However, the US Security and Exchange Commission threw its weight behind the standard by issuing a full XBRL taxonomy for US GAAP in December and setting up an Office of Interactive Disclosure. "As the use of IFRS and XBRL continues to spread across the globe, one can imagine that in the not-too-distant future, both financial reporting and the means of exchange of financial information will be standardised the world over," said SEC chairman Christopher Cox in late November. According to Richard Pierce and other UK software houses, accountants in this country are not interested, even though XBRL is likely to be the vehicle for filing accounts both with Companies House and HMRC. Simon Hurst along with Sage's Greg Ford and Digita's Jerry Rihll have been calling on developers to stop dragging their heels and get behind the standard, which among other things will allow accounting applications to share data more easily. XBRL may not become mainstream in 2008, but will certainly stir up a few more arguments.

The software as a service debate - once more, with feeling
As predicted, software on demand/as a service failed to "take off" within the accountancy profession in 2007. But we should be aware by now that technology adoption doesn't work that way. Regular readers will know I am a big fan of the "hype cycle" concept applied by market analyst Gartner, in which a "peak of inflated expectations" is followed by a "trough of disillusionment" and a slow pattern of adoption 18 months to two years later. While concerns about security and trusting sensitive data to the online "cloud" still frighten many accountants, results from our Software Satisfaction Survey indicated that 7-8% of accounting software respondents were using hosted applications. Breaking the 5% barrier represents a major step forward and suggests that software on demand is beginning to climb up Gartner's "slope of enlightenment". By the end of the year, the discussion will be focused back where it should be - on what different applications can do for us rather than how they are delivered.

The ones that crept under the radar - social networking
I admit it, I completely missed the social networking craze and its impact on business when looking into my tea leaves last year. Put it down to personal prejudice - I have dabbled on MySpace and have many friends on Facebook, but in too many cases it ended up taking over their lives. I get enough pointless email as it is. The late summer saw an extensive debate on the site about whether employers were right to ban access to Facebook and other social networking sites, but Ernst & Young and Deloitte have taken it to heart, as has the Bristol and District Chartered Accountants Society (BADCASS). If you aren't quite ready to have fellow accountants plastering your fun wall on Facebook, it is possible to experiment there are less demanding alternatives such as LinkedIn. Dennis Howlett, our accountancy-trained scout out on technology's cutting edge is more taken with Twitter, the instant message-like diary website and Seesmic, a video-based social network.

Under the radar - working mobile technologies
For many years now, I have grown used to evangelical nerds showing off the magical powers of their PDAs and smartphones. It has made for a great spectator sport, but I have so far been unable to convince my employer - an internet developer - of the business case for using one. Perhaps you have had the same experience. The main difficulty has been the cost and availability of suitable broadband and WiFi links for these devices. But the responses to our mobile working supplements this year indicate that the tide is turning. Mobile technologies are likely to play a bigger part in our working lives over the next year. As I have learned over many years of technology watching, the trends you don't hear a lot about from the experts are usually the ones you should be watching most carefully.

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Dennis Howlett
By dahowlett
02nd Jan 2008 07:58

Thanks but...
Thanks for the props John - a few things:

On the discussion around XBRL, 'Elizabeth' made the point about aggregated data, suggesting it doesn't get talked about enough. That's such a no brainer I'm equally surprised. I'll have more to say on this later.

On-demand. While you are correct concerning the profession, less so in the wider market. This year will see a major vendor bring out an on demand product that will stun the market. Again - more later. However, let us not forget that inertia has its part to play. The incumbent vendors have no interest in promoting this as an alternative model because it wounds their existing products in ways they cannot parse financially. On-demand economics are becoming so attractive to buyers that it will be very difficult to stop the trend. Actually - it will be impossible, especially since NetSuite's incredibly successful IPO and Salesforce.com's success.

As to social networking - expect to hear something on this in the next couple of months that will blow a lot of your readers away. Seriously. I have something I've been itching to talk about for a long time but it's not quite baked. Nearly, but not quite.

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By daveforbes
02nd Jan 2008 16:53

XBRL - all very well talking about it !
The list of accounts software that actually support XBRL filing with companies house is at

http://www.companieshouse.gov.uk/toolsToHelp/accountsSoftware.shtml

The first column shows packages which can file XBRL accounts.
I particularly like the one on the top of the list !

David Forbes

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