I'm on the election beat for AccountingWEB tonight - anyone else watching?
It looks like a sizeable Conservative majority, judging by the exit polls (time of writing 10.30pm!).
The Tories have promised to freeze the rates of NIC, VAT and income tax, as well as reform the insolvency rules and the audit regime. Plus, they'll apparently review the IR35 rules due to arrive in April and, of course, 'Get Brexit Done'.
So what does this mean for you and your clients?
Interested to hear your thoughts,
Tom
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Well there we are. Now get a Budget date sorted, fix the broken mess that is the tax system, and get on with providing the business community with some actual stability. Over and out. (Jeremy)
I am relieved and delighted. It means I will not in the coming years have to refer loads of clients to specialists in insolvency or in the tax effects of emigration. We can now move forward to a tax and accounting environment more like Singapore than Venezuela.
It will all depend on the economy, as always, room to do things is determined by tax take which is determined by GDP which is determined by the economy.
The period from now to 30th June 2020 will be fascinating as to whether Boris then extends the transition period beyond 31st December or tries to exit at 31 December with whatever he has managed to negotiate in the few months he will actually have, that will possibly depend upon how ERG centric the new intake are and how bullish Boris actually is , in effect is there any pragmatism within the displayed bumper sticker politics.
Given the notification deadlines for extension intrinsic with the WA and suggestions I have read that real negotiations may not even get off the ground before March, it is a really tight 4 month period to make sufficient progress to be confident by June that he will not need an extension post 31st December.
Couple that with with the required ratification process for any trade agreement (all other EU countries individually will need to sign up) means the oven ready deal needs accepted by the other side by say 30th September, and I cannot see how anything comprehensive will get negotiated within that window, accordingly it looks like either non comprehensive deal with the EU or trip one of the WA allowed extensions.
So, only people he can now blame if things go wrong will be the EU.
IMO opinion, it means everyone except the privileged few are well and truly f@#cked
Myself and my other half will be pricing up private medical cover in anticipation of Dark Times ahead.
Or I might just convince her to emigrate, though my best second language is French and even then it is Joey level.
I watched channel 4 alternative election with political heavy weight Ryland on. I thought Jimmy Carr spoke sense.
It was lacking a good swing o meter though.
The highlight of the whole campaign was quality of Gifs available from all sides on facebook although some people go nuts about what was meant to be a light hearted jape.
Watched it up until about 1am, saw that the first results were generally in line with the exit poll. Not entirely surprised by the result but mightily relieved we've avoided having a hard line marxist government. I'm a Londoner born and bred and living in London which is still surprisingly loyal to Labour, but understand that traditional Labour voters in the North and Midlands felt totally disconnected from the current Labour party.
I personally believe the seeds of Labour's devastating loss were sown when they appointed the wrong Miliband brother to lead them into the 2015 election. If Labour have any sense, they will arrange for David Miliband to be swiftly returned to parliament at the first available by election and bring him back as leader.
The next election in 2024 will be interesting as the Conservatives will be judged on how (or if) they delivered on their promise to get brexit done and the impact it has on the country. There won't be (or at least shouldn't be) a Brexit party to take the Labour votes like they did yesterday.
Totally agree about David Miliband. He would have won in 2015. No referendum. No Brexit. The real irony is that Ed Miliband would now be a very senior cabinet minister.
It will be good for some of my clients, probably the wealthier ones, which could make it good for me.
It will be terrible for the country. That said, I'm not wholly convinced whether the alternatives would have been better, or would have been even worse.
I was rather hoping for complete deadlock leading to resignations from both leaders and that the replacement leaders would not only be viable options themselves, they would bring with them a wholly reinvented, credible, front bench each. Downside of course is that even that would probably have meant short term pain.
What is clear is that we will leave the EU on a deal that most people agreed was pretty [***]. In due course I suspect that we will re-join either the existing EU or a 'new' EU once the current one has shaken itself apart - and it is likely that the terms we get will be less favourable than the ones we had.
Ironically one of my wealthiest clients has posted lots of lefty comments on Facebook this week. You wouldn’t know she has over a million in a fund and another in property, well unless you were her accountant.
These are the ones who can afford a Labour government. The country as a whole simply could not.
Whilst I am disappointed to see the size of the majority, Im going to enjoy watching Boris trying to get the wings on the pig and make it fly.
The fundamental issues of Brexit have not gone away.
You still cant have a free trade deal with the EU and not obey the EU's rules.
You cant have tariffs with the EU and not have a border in the Irish sea.
Im hoping he will end up with May's plan, ie no real brexit and a vassal state as he can then say to the Brexiteers (via his control over the press) "we have left" and if its repeated often enough it will largely believe it, and to business "as you were".
Im fearing he will go back to the stupid plan of dangling "no deal" which the EU are not fussed about, and end up falling out of the EU badly, with Scotland and Ireland slinking off, leaving England & Wales a pathetic little country at the mercy of the EU and US, and the economy shot to pieces.
Or he might just stumble on for several years promising Brexit, if only it wasn't for parliament, the EU, immigrants, or whatever else his propaganda machine comes up with.
What is not going to happen is Brexit getting done, and more than he died in a ditch in October.
Dust off the low CGT rate banking planning for when ER gets abolished in next Budget.
Also expect cuts in the top SDLT rates.
Whatever happens there will change both good and less good, which will bring more work to the brethren
The only dilemma now (9.55 Friday) is how to put wee Krankie back in her toy box and stop her being a nuisance both to us and the Scots
Scotland don't like the Conservatives and indeed haven't voted to elect them in sixty four years. We also didn't vote for Brexit yet are being dragged out of the EU against our will.
You're entitled to your opinion on what's best for the people of Scotland, but as a person of Scotland I'd like to one day live in a democracy.
How far do you drill down, though? Scotland is part of the UK and as such are part of a democracy. The fact that a large proportion of Scotland voted to Remain is tough - that is what democracy is all about. Where I live, a very significant proportion voted against Independence. Assuming (and I accept that it's a bold assumption) that a second vote would be similar (but with an overall 'yes'), why should that part of Scotland be dragged out of the UK against its will?
How far do you drill down, though? Scotland is part of the UK and as such are part of a democracy. The fact that a large proportion of Scotland voted to Remain is tough - that is what democracy is all about. Where I live, a very significant proportion voted against Independence. Assuming (and I accept that it's a bold assumption) that a second vote would be similar (but with an overall 'yes'), why should that part of Scotland be dragged out of the UK against its will?
The Scottish situation is intriguing
If the UK is out of the EU and a referendum in Scotland votes for independence
then they will have to ask the EU if they can join
The EU will probably say yes just to [***] of the rest of the UK but not definitely
The probable terms for entry
Insist that it's in the Eurozone and want central banking etc
Where will the money to run Scotland come from if we stop providing it ?
Also
Tariff barriers along Hadrian's wall ??
And although it's a rather hackneyed comment, I find it intriguing that a political party is banging on about independence, the right to self-govern etc, yet is determined to remain shackled to Brussels. The truth is that it has nothing whatsoever to do with independence per se but is a reflection of the anti-English obsession that the Nationalists carry as two massive chips on their shoulders.
Spot on. The last thing the SNP want is to stand on their own feet. What currency will they use? Not their own ‘Haggis’ thats for sure, it would involve true fiscal responsibility.
Tariff barriers along Hadrian's wall ??
Hadrian's Wall is entirely in England.
Just saying, like.
bernard michael wrote:
Tariff barriers along Hadrian's wall ??Hadrian's Wall is entirely in England.
Just saying, like.
The Italians never were very good at geography
I think you will find it was built by Geordies which is why its still standing.
70 mile long, 10 metre high, plus forts etc completed in 7 years without any power tools, equipment etc
Scotland don't like the Conservatives and indeed haven't voted to elect them in sixty four years. We also didn't vote for Brexit yet are being dragged out of the EU against our will.
You're entitled to your opinion on what's best for the people of Scotland, but as a person of Scotland I'd like to one day live in a democracy.
Scotland elected 13 Conservative MPs in 2017 and still have six now. There are currently 31 'conservative' MSPs. To say that "Scotland haven't voted to elect them" isn't the worse misrepresentation of a political situation I've heard this week, but it's been a heavy week to be fair. In normal circumstances this would be up there, alongside the insinuation that just because you didn't get your way, you don't live in a democracy.
To put it into context, Scotland has roughly the same population as Yorkshire - about 5 1/2 million people in each. Their views are no more, nor less, important. They didn't, as a region, vote for or against Brexit - their votes were considered as part of the overall total and it was the same everywhere else too.
And there you totally miss the point. Yorkshire, lovely place that it is, is a region of England, it stopped being a distinct (ish) kingdom post the vikings, Scotland is not merely a land mass part of the UK, just as NI is not a land mass part of the UK, Scotland is a different country, it has different laws, different education system, a different history even differences in culture (and that does not just mean tartan, haggis et al). Scottish Literature at Edinburgh was a distinct course in early years and then in honours options, it has a different voice to that of England, different values, so the conceit that Scotland is mere part, akin to any English county ,is why some down south hit a wall with their ability to understand and the chance of a split increases.
To be clear the Monarch is not queen of the UK, she is queen of the distinct kingdoms of the UK, each is a distinct monarchy not an indivisible whole.
The only thing Scotland ceded in 1707 was the merging of its parliament with that of England and Wales, it did not cede being a distinct and separate country.
Now I have no wish for us to leave the UK, I believe the UK is a good union, I am equally Scottish and English, I have both cultures within my family and my upbringing, in fact because I never knew my grandparents of my mother's side (the Scottish part) and my mother died when I was in my early teens with no extended family on that side, a lot of that sense of family came from my Wiltshire raised grandfather despite my living in Scotland all my life. I knew vast amounts about Aldbourne (the village he was from), its families, his life there before he left to join the army from talking with him, he certainly never developed a Scottish accent like mine, retaining his softer wiltshire way of speech, even my father who moved here aged four (from Yorkshire by chance- Catterick and before that Egypt) was never fully Scottish in speech or attitude, thought, he loved Scotland but that did not make him Scottish. (He described himself as North British)
The surefire way Scotland will leave the UK is an inability to view it as a distinct and separate country, if people proceed down that path then just as Brexit is financially illogical, but is happening,Scottish independence though financially illogical, will also happen, and all parties to the union of countries will be culturally poorer as a result.
And there you totally miss the point. Yorkshire, lovely place that it is, is a region of England.....
Look - we can always build an invisible frontier like the one in Ireland.
Do you not only need one down your western border?
There is always that TV series "Under The Dome" for inspiration.
Do you not only need one down your western border?
There is always that TV series "Under The Dome" for inspiration.
Well, there's a dispute about where the border is these days. Since 1974, parts of Yorkshire have been under the jackboot of rule by Durham, Cumbria, Lancashire and something called Greater Manchester.
I come over the A66 and see the sign on the summit "Welcome to the Land of the Prince Bishops" and think "aye, right." Nothing on the right bank of the Tees is in County Durham.
Give Donald a call, he already has an experienced team of wall builders.
We don't need a wall. Just a frontier.
She is really not, the great mystery of the SNP is they are both soft left and in some ways soft right, they can appeal into both factions, that is why both Labour and the Conservatives lose seats to them.
There is this common misconception that Scotland is a socialist leaning country, it really is not, it is more social democratic- if the SNP were really a left wing party they would have nowhere near the success they have.
My understanding of Nicola and the SNP as a Northumbrian who keeps a keen eye on our friends across the border is that 'she' talks left and 'they' act right.
The Scots need to realise that idealogically Sturgeon is actually Corbyn in a skirt.
I saw her being interviewed by Cameron Meikelson, the head of the Scottish Police Force, and she didn't wear a skirt for that.
And there you totally miss the point. Yorkshire, lovely place that it is, is a region of England, it stopped being a distinct (ish) kingdom post the vikings, Scotland is not merely a land mass part of the UK, just as NI is not a land mass part of the UK, Scotland is a different country.
I haven't missed it at all. I just make a different point to you.
The EU referendum wasn't offered to individual countries. It was offered to the UK electorate as a whole. Scotland voted to remain part of the UK and so they were included in the main vote on whether to stay in the EU. That's how it works. As such, a Scot's vote is equal to a Mancunian's, a Cockney's or anyone else's. My point about the population of Scotland vs Yorkshire is that the collective votes of each region held equal weight, as they should have.
The big problem with the SNP, and some of their supporters is that they want to have their cake, deep fry it, and eat it - and if they cant do that then it must be the fault of the English.
You're entitled to your opinion on what's best for the people of Scotland, but as a person of Scotland I'd like to one day live in a democracy.
More people live in Yorkshire than Scotland or Wales.
More people live in the West Riding than in Northern Ireland.
Yorkshire is bigger than Northern Ireland.
It's just how it is. More jobs in the South East so more people go there. Then they complain that the transport system can't cope.
Dismayed for our clients, the Conservatives have, since they last took power, abolished the dividend tax credit and forced large public sector engagers to apply a stricter than necessary IR35 policy and, despite some vague allusions, I'm quite sure they will go ahead and roll it out to the private sector.
They have ripped apart the foundations upon which a huge number of our small business clients are built and have more or less destroyed the viability of operating as a limited company contractor.
I think the hardest part to swallow is that they have this constant rhetoric about lower taxes and good for business, while creating an environment completely hostile to small businesses when compared with the Blair/Brown era.
Dismayed for our clients, the Conservatives have, since they last took power, abolished the dividend tax credit and forced large public sector engagers to apply a stricter than necessary IR35 policy and, despite some vague allusions, I'm quite sure they will go ahead and roll it out to the private sector.
They have ripped apart the foundations upon which a huge number of our small business clients are built and have more or less destroyed the viability of operating as a limited company contractor.
I think the hardest part to swallow is that they have this constant rhetoric about lower taxes and good for business, while creating an environment completely hostile to small businesses when compared with the Blair/Brown era.
I'm sure you wouldn't have preferred the Marxists to have won or would you
They ............…. have more or less destroyed the viability of operating as a limited company contractor.
Yes, I suppose there is the odd thing they have done which is good. Few and far between are items such as this though.
Relieved. The thought of a marxist in number 10, a communist at the treasury, and Dianne Abott at the Home Office was the stuff of nightmares.
At least now our clients will still be able to run their businesses without trade unions being installed on the board.
As a bonus we will soon be spared the daily sight of Corbyn and McDonnell spouting their ridiculous ideas on our TV screens.
I left the count I was helping at at 0.30am (I was getting up at 6am to do the school run)
I have written an Industry Insight about the election.
https://www.accountingweb.co.uk/community/industry-insights/what-does-th...
I don't think that much will change about IR35.
I think moreso about my mother who died after being sent home from an NHS hospital due to lack of beds, the nice homeless chap who froze to death in a bus stop across from our office, the fact that our local school is doing a shoebox appeal for children in this country who will have nothing this Christmas. I think about the selfishness of those most privileged, the rise of nationalism and racism in this country and the fact that several of my friends and co-workers who are from outside the UK no longer feel welcome here. I think about the impended implosion to trade that Brexit will cause and I think about how I sincerely hope that anybody who voted for another term with this absolute band of contemptuous fools and liars is a bit sick in their mouths whenever they look in a mirror. You're all absolute mugs and you've had your pants pulled down. You're on the wrong side of history.
Oh but I'm sure our client, Johnathan Offshore Funds Esq, will be extremely happy. Another 5 mil in the bank. Buy yourself a gold plated toilet, sir.
well the 17.4 million have their wish....just hope they read the small print - the one with all the reasons why they won't get refunded when they find said product to be faulty.
It's all the fault of James VI of Scotland/ James I of England who "united" the 2 countries under 1 ruler
Hold on, if the English were all so scheming that Liz did not dare marry one and have his sprog, thus her line died out, and given Henry went through wives at a bit of a rate such that England's laws of succession were a shambles and it had to nip back to Henry's sister (Margaret Tudor) to get an heir that was acceptable, then frankly that is hardly the fault of James VI.
Hold on, if the English were all so scheming that Liz did not dare marry one and have his sprog, thus her line died out, and given Henry went through wives at a bit of a rate such that England's laws of succession were a shambles and it had to nip back to Henry's sister (Margaret Tudor) to get an heir that was acceptable, then frankly that is hardly the fault of James VI.
He could have said no but was too greedy for power a la Wee Kranky
It's all the fault of James VI of Scotland/ James I of England who "united" the 2 countries under 1 ruler
What a cop out !
Blame somebody who's dead. It's all his fault.
"Get Brexit Done" was pure genius for a slogan.
Most of the country was utterly fed up with the deadlock and just voted for the bloke that would end it all.
No doubt once that's over, folk will return to more traditional lines.
