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My recent economics asset bubble burst post

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-14/u-k-house-prices-set-for-14-drop-next-year-as-sup

Didn't find your answer?

I would find it hard to argue with this house price crash prediction story:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-14/u-k-house-prices-set-for-14-drop-next-year-as-support-ends?srnd=premium-europe

Based on what I'm seeing locally at least.

 

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By I'msorryIhaven'taclue
14th Sep 2020 13:08

The methodology used by the government - including the links to sub-sites such as the ONS - is evidently based upon the "average" selling price of all detached, all semi-detached, all terraced dwelling etc over a given period of time. Which means that any perceived "rises" in price recently being reported could easily be a result of people in lower-end properties in each of those categories staying put.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-january-2020...

Of course house prices will bomb by 2021. They already have!

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By Adam12345
14th Sep 2020 21:04

The SDLT holiday has covered some cracks. Come April, (maybe as early as January) there is going to be a lack of buyers, with repossessions rising, leading to a gradual fall in house prices.

Not to mention the changes to HTB and SDLT for non-residents that come in next year. A second wave of Coronavirus could also have a massive impact.

Everyone needs a roof over their head so there won’t be a massive crash, IMO. The government are likely to introduce further policies to help the market out also.

City centres, flats and new builds will be hit the hardest.

All lenders have tightened up their lending criteria (a clue as to what they think is going to happen), very few 90% LTV products available and lots of chains falling through as a result in my area.

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By Justin Bryant
15th Sep 2020 12:42

My conclusion here is that it's remarkable what a property tax saving deadline does to the UK property market. Look at the MIRAS thing in the late eighties - the crazy stories from then are all totally true, as I worked in an civil service office at the time with work colleagues offering to buy jointly just to beat that deadline. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortgage_interest_relief_at_source

Then there was the 3% SDLT surcharge deadline. Just look at any property chart from March 2016 to see the effect there.

The same is inevitably happening again now.

The UK public are a bit bonkers when it comes to avoiding property taxes it seems (FOMO or whatever).

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By I'msorryIhaven'taclue
15th Sep 2020 17:11

Justin Bryant wrote:

Look at the MIRAS thing in the late eighties - the crazy stories from then are all totally true, as I worked in an civil service office at the time with work colleagues offering to buy jointly just to beat that deadline.


A couple in the accountants' practice where I worked had been engaged for ever, but hurriedly tied the knot and applied for a joint-mortgage ahead of that MIRAS deadline. They separated the following year.
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