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Questions for Vote Leave business chair?

Questions for Vote Leave business chair?

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Morning all. We're speaking with John Longworth, former British Chamber of Commerce head and chair of the Vote Leave Business council tomorrow.

Does anyone have any questions they'd like us to put to him?

Replies (24)

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Out of my mind
By runningmate
18th May 2016 09:51

1. What does he consider to be the key economic / business risks of staying IN the EU?
2. We hear a lot of "facts" from both sides - but, in truth, does anyone have any facts about the UK's economic / business position say 5 or 10 years from now (whether we vote IN or OUT)?

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Replying to runningmate:
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By Duhamel
18th May 2016 10:27

runningmate wrote:

1. What does he consider to be the key economic / business risks of staying IN the EU?
2. We hear a lot of "facts" from both sides - but, in truth, does anyone have any facts about the UK's economic / business position say 5 or 10 years from now (whether we vote IN or OUT)?

I heard a talk from the chief economist at HSBC (who have declared themselves as in favour of staying). He gave a great presentation. Economically, we won't know if it was the right choice to leave for 15/20 years because things will take that long to settle. He didn't say that it wouldn't work and he didn't scaremonger.

That I believe. I might vote leave, but I expect things to be bumpy for 15/20 years.

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By jaffe123
18th May 2016 10:14

Why hasn't anyone asked the Chancellor or PM what plans they have to avoid their catastrophic predictions should there be a vote to leave. Surely they must have a backup plan?

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By ShirleyM
18th May 2016 10:26

I would like to know:
1) What the economic forecast would be in the event of more countries joining, in particular, Turkey and the Ukraine.
2) The economic forecast of the UK when we are forced into the Euro

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Out of my mind
By runningmate
18th May 2016 10:24

It does appear that Mr Cameron is, if he believes what he says, gambling with national / international catastrophe by allowing there to be a referendum at all. EU & overseas politicians & civil servants must think he is a complete plonker!
RM

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Replying to runningmate:
By ShirleyM
18th May 2016 10:29

Cameron was responding to the increased support for UKIP. In the General Election UKIP obtained the 3rd largest number of votes, and it has the greatest number of MEP's. He only won the GE because he promised a referendum.

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Caroline
By accountantccole
18th May 2016 10:41

I'd like to know what free trade structure he thinks we can achieve.
There seems to be the unrealistic view from the Leave campaign that we can have free trade without having to pay, without the red tape and without free movement of people.
What sort of deal does he think we can realistically get from the EU?
Why would the other "club" members give us a better deal than they have as members if we aren't a member?

Thanks (3)
Replying to accountantccole:
Locutus of Borg
By Locutus
18th May 2016 11:24

accountantccole wrote:

I'd like to know what free trade structure he thinks we can achieve.
There seems to be the unrealistic view from the Leave campaign that we can have free trade without having to pay, without the red tape and without free movement of people.
What sort of deal does he think we can realistically get from the EU?
Why would the other "club" members give us a better deal than they have as members if we aren't a member?

That is a valid question for Leave to answer. Personally, I would drop back to EFTA membership (but with the caveat of no Schengen) in the short to medium term and then reconsider at our leisure from there.

However, I have often wondered, Leave get criticised for just wanting to cherry pick the good stuff out of the current EU arrangement and drop the bad stuff. That begs the question, why can't the whole EU just do the same? Why does the EU cling to things that so many of its citizens consider "bad"?

Thanks (1)
Replying to Locutus:
Out of my mind
By runningmate
18th May 2016 20:01

I think many people in mainland Europe consider their own country's membership of the Eurozone & the Schengen area to be big positives from EU membership - and they look forward to a bright future of 'ever closer union'.
But people in the UK do not warm to these ideas & fondly imagine that they can agree reforms to the EU to take it in a different direction altogether (which can never happen).
RM

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Replying to accountantccole:
By ShirleyM
18th May 2016 12:07

accountantccole wrote:

I'd like to know what free trade structure he thinks we can achieve.
There seems to be the unrealistic view from the Leave campaign that we can have free trade without having to pay, without the red tape and without free movement of people.
What sort of deal does he think we can realistically get from the EU?
Why would the other "club" members give us a better deal than they have as members if we aren't a member?

Personally, I think Gove got it right when he said we won't need the EFTA or the EEA. Smaller countries than us have FTA's without tariffs, without EU legislation, and without free movement of people. Obviously, anyone wanting to sell to the EU would have to comply with their standards, just as other countries have to comply with our British Standards (do they still exist?)

I agree with Locutus that the EU treats non-EU countries much more kindly than it's own EU countries.

I would be very interested in John Longworth's view.

Thanks (1)
Replying to ShirleyM:
Locutus of Borg
By Locutus
18th May 2016 13:46

ShirleyM wrote:

accountantccole wrote:

I'd like to know what free trade structure he thinks we can achieve.
There seems to be the unrealistic view from the Leave campaign that we can have free trade without having to pay, without the red tape and without free movement of people.
What sort of deal does he think we can realistically get from the EU?
Why would the other "club" members give us a better deal than they have as members if we aren't a member?

Personally, I think Gove got it right when he said we won't need the EFTA or the EEA. Smaller countries than us have FTA's without tariffs, without EU legislation, and without free movement of people. Obviously, anyone wanting to sell to the EU would have to comply with their standards, just as other countries have to comply with our British Standards (do they still exist?)

I agree with Locutus that the EU treats non-EU countries much more kindly than it's own EU countries.

I would be very interested in John Longworth's view.

I agree that EFTA as it is now, is not ideally where I would want to be, but there may be some merit in re-joining the organisation that we initially founded as a rival to the EEC.

I would be prepared to stay in EFTA (but strictly outside of Schengen) for, say, 5 years. If EFTA evolves into something that we like (and we would by far and away be the largest economy) then stay in it, if not go it alone completely.

The whole debate about tariffs and the free-trade area seems misguided to me. We have to currently pay £10bn net per year to belong to this "free" trade area, so it is not very free and indeed probably more expensive than the tariffs companies (not the British taxpayer) would pay under World Trade Organisation rules for being completely outside of the EU/EEA/EFTA.

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Replying to Locutus:
By ShirleyM
18th May 2016 14:26

We can't wait a few years for Brexit and we can't accept free movement of people. EU immigration is so vast now, and when EU immigrants take UK citizenship they will all vote to Remain. I would if I were them, as it would make it easier for families to visit each other, but it will remove any chance of a possible Brexit ... unless the EU collapses!

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Replying to ShirleyM:
Caroline
By accountantccole
18th May 2016 13:53

Which smaller countries?
I haven't seen this angle before so would be interested to read up more.

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Replying to accountantccole:
By ShirleyM
18th May 2016 14:16

accountantccole wrote:

Which smaller countries?
I haven't seen this angle before so would be interested to read up more.

I meant by GDP, not geographically. Here is a list:

https://knoema.com/nwnfkne/world-gdp-ranking-2015-data-and-charts

Little old Switzerland has double the FTA's of the EU, but these are bilateral, and the EU's are multilateral as they represent 28 EU countries.

https://www.seco.admin.ch/seco/en/home/Aussenwirtschaftspolitik_Wirtscha...

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Replying to ShirleyM:
Caroline
By accountantccole
19th May 2016 11:33

ShirleyM wrote:

accountantccole wrote:

Which smaller countries?
I haven't seen this angle before so would be interested to read up more.

I meant by GDP, not geographically. Here is a list:

https://knoema.com/nwnfkne/world-gdp-ranking-2015-data-and-charts

Little old Switzerland has double the FTA's of the EU, but these are bilateral, and the EU's are multilateral as they represent 28 EU countries.

https://www.seco.admin.ch/seco/en/home/Aussenwirtschaftspolitik_Wirtscha...

Thank you for clarifying. Trouble is although the Swiss model allows free negotiations, it is still heavily constrained by the EU. This article is good
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/is-the-swiss-model-a-brexit-solution/

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By D_Griffin
18th May 2016 15:04

There is so much talk about the economic arguments, but the truth is that the Chancellor and the treasury have not got a single forecast right in years, not even 3 months in advance let alone 10 years.

Neither side has any idea what will happen in the next few years.

What is certain is that continued free movement will expose us to more mass immigration until our already overloaded services can no longer cope.

The EU is running scared as, if Britain votes to leave, then other nations are lining up to also demand a vote.

One thing that the campaign has shown us all is just how low politicians of all parties are prepared to sink just to keep their noses in the EU trough.

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By Tim Vane
18th May 2016 16:29

I'd like to know who he voted for in the Eurovision Song Contest.

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By neiltonks
18th May 2016 17:04

We often hear arguments that businesses would have more flexibility or freedom outside the EU. However these are relatively vague terms - can he give any concrete examples of things a business would be able to do (or be able to stop doing) if we left the EU?

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Replying to neiltonks:
By ShirleyM
18th May 2016 18:16

I've been told, but have no direct experience, that farmers are among the most heavily regulated, with regard to crops and the equipment they must use.

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Replying to ShirleyM:
Hallerud at Easter
By DJKL
19th May 2016 11:52

ShirleyM wrote:

I've been told, but have no direct experience, that farmers are among the most heavily regulated, with regard to crops and the equipment they must use.

I doubt being in or out will make a lot of difference, control over inputs into the food chain will likely remain come what may in the same way that pharmaceutical production processes/ingredients are audited prior to batches being released from factories.

Anyone with pretensions of selling foodstuffs into Europe (and likely the ROW) will need to jump through hoops, I really do not see that changing.

What I would see changing (maybe) is the structure of rewards for behaviour in agriculture, whilst I think wild flower meadows are wonderful (bees are good) I really am not convinced re some of the grants re their creation and their maintenance (what maintenance, I thought they were self seeding) Happy to see a few bits thus planted on farms, not so keen if they divert significantly land from other uses; as a layperson it seems grants and subsidies maybe sometimes lurch from one fad to the next with little in the way of long term strategy re appropriate land use.

(On the positive side I sowed a test area of wild flowers in our Garden in Sweden at Easter so will see results in July/August, hoping to encourage bees to improve pollination re our fruit trees)

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By Tom Herbert
19th May 2016 16:47

Many thanks for your questions everyone. Podcast and write up to come soon.

Bad news, Tim. He didn't watch the Eurovision song contest...

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By ShirleyM
23rd May 2016 17:43

Has this article appeared yet? If so, I can't find it so please point me to it.

ps. Why do I have to keep logging in? AWeb used to log me in automatically.

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By Knight Rider
09th Jun 2016 18:06

The leave campaigners need to be pressing the Government for their plans and timescales if we vote leave. In particular the Government should be providing the following:
1. Leave date,ie within 2 years
2. Assurances that visas will not be required for travel to EU countries
3. Timescale for joining EEA if applicable
4. From when will UK tariffs be applied to non EU imports (if applicable)
5 Which countries will have priority in trade negotiations?
6 When will EU migrants be treated equally to non EU migrants?
7 Which EU funded projects will have their funding replaced by the UK?
8 How will the Irish Republic be impacted and what measures can be taken to mitigate any negative impact of border controls or tariffs?

In short Voteleave need to be forcing the Government to disclose their plans after a leave vote.

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mcleod tartan
By K McLeod
09th Jun 2016 19:07

If we vote to leave it's clear that the citizens of many other member states will also demand a referendum. Does he actually believe that in 5 or 10 years time the EU will still exist? Personally I think it should have been strangled at birth, and is now dying.

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