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What to make of the Brexit chaos?

It's all dissolving in front of our eyes with Boris and David Davis both resigning.

Didn't find your answer?

It's been a busy newsday in Westminster, to say the least. But politics aside, what effect if any do you think this might have on your business/your clients? Brexit has already caused delays to the Treasury's digital plans, could this lead to further delays?

Or is this just theatre?

Replies (111)

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Jennifer Adams
By Jennifer Adams
09th Jul 2018 18:35

Yes... well.. I cant say I'm surprised and I doubt whether Mrs May is all that surprised either.
Did you notice that David Davies' announcement was after the papers were put to bed so wouldnt be in the front page this morning?
I dont think it will result in further delays as we all know that full MTD is a dream.
But what I am doing is ensuring that my clients EU refund claims are being made quarterly even if only for a few hundred pounds refund. 31 Sept is deadline for calendar year to 2017 remember!!

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Replying to Jennifer Adams:
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By Mr_awol
09th Jul 2018 18:34

Jennifer Adams wrote:

31 Sept is deadline for calendar year to 2017 remember!!

I've tried to set a reminder on my calendar - but I'm struggling........................

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Replying to Jennifer Adams:
By Tim Vane
09th Jul 2018 19:30

Jennifer Adams wrote:

31 Sept is deadline for calendar year to 2017 remember!!

Typical bureacrats. Setting a deadline date that doesn’t even exist in the real world.

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Replying to Tim Vane:
Francois
By Francois Badenhorst
10th Jul 2018 09:12

Haha good one, Tim.

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By Mr_awol
09th Jul 2018 18:33

It's a shambles, but then we always knew it would be didn't we? Neither of the two main parties have a leader that any right minded person would trust to run a bath, let alone the country.

Personally I'd prefer to scrap Brexit, pretend to go back with our tail between our legs and then sabotage the whole institution by frustrating any future progress - bring it crashing down from the inside.

As for HMRC and MTD etc, it will proceed as planned, but will remain a wishy washy, watered down version of itself - to the extent that it will be utterly pointless.

Clients? I don't think most of them care to be honest. I've got some in freight logistics who are rubbing their hands.

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By SteveHa
10th Jul 2018 09:58

I don't posses a TV, and so tend to miss out on the soap operas and comedies. Of course, reading the latest from Parliament in the papers fills both gaps admirably, and certainly more outrageous than I remember anything on TV ever being.

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Replying to SteveHa:
paddle steamer
By DJKL
10th Jul 2018 10:14

There was a running battle between "The Thick of It" and real life re which was most outrageous ,though per Armando Iannucci real life won some time back.

Recent reports of Peter Capaldi and Iannucci being seen in a studio together appear to be re a production of David Copperfield, Malcolm is not returning at present, it appears.

Still, with what is stirring in real life I think a rewatch double helping of " Spinners and Losers "and "Rise of the Nutters" is now warranted.

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By Justin Bryant
10th Jul 2018 12:49

That there is pretty much total chaos here is entirely unsurprising and you should expect much more of the same. As Albert Einstein supposedly said: “Two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I am not yet completely sure about the universe.”

Because we need them more than they need us the EU has one 'backstop' red line ...You cannot get a better deal outside than inside.

Pride comes before a fall (off a cliff edge in this case).

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By johnjenkins
10th Jul 2018 10:50

Why TM ever thought she could get away with anything short of "no deal" really does surprise me. The EU don't want us to leave (no surprise there) they won't negotiate anything other than full control (again no surprise). The longer this farce goes on the more people (not big business moguls) will be on the side of a "no deal" Brexit. I don't think a leadership battle will happen. DD, BJ et al will just look on while TM sucks up to the EU (Nash Equilibrium?).

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Replying to johnjenkins:
paddle steamer
By DJKL
10th Jul 2018 11:14

How on earth you believed she could deliver a no deal really does surprise me, those who crave such a deal just do not have the numbers in the HOC.

Whilst a leadership challenge is conceivably possible (suggestions are that a vote of over 100 against her might be enough in first vote) the ERG does not appear to have the numbers (80s ????) and I believe they only get one chance a year against her.

Frankly rock and a hard place here and am really not convinced that the shambles ensuing will herd more to the No deal viewpoint, in fact quite the reverse.

The problem here is aspiration just got hit by reality and reality is slowly winning.

Try reading say Dr North's blog at;

www.eureferendum.com,

given his pedigree within UKIP he can hardly be accused of being a remain supporter. Whilst I personally have no belief in the need to leave the EU (I consider most of the perceived benefits as mere mirages) I can at least appreciate that a gradual process of disentanglement as Dr North suggests (Flexcit) is probably the only way it can actually work, a crash out is just not an option we can afford, we are too entangled.

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Replying to DJKL:
Red Leader
By Red Leader
10th Jul 2018 12:04

Thanks for the link to that blog. Very interesting to get the viewpoint of a dedicated Leaver who reckons a gradual "leave" over many years is the only practical way to disentangle ourselves from the EU. It does rather show up the approach of JRM as unintelligent, despite his image as a deep thinker.

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Replying to Red Leader:
paddle steamer
By DJKL
10th Jul 2018 12:20

I find it really worth reading, whilst currently a bit caught up in the current drama some of his daily blogs (you can find them on the site) concentrating say on analysis of particular facets re leaving, like regulation structures, have been very interesting and informative, albeit some of the comments re the blogs can go on a bit without adding much to one's understanding.

Certainly somewhat more cerebral than the average HOC type rhetoric.

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Replying to DJKL:
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By johnjenkins
10th Jul 2018 13:34

TM has always hinted that if she couldn't get a "good deal" for the UK then provisions for "no deal" are put in place.
It's absurd to think that the EU will accept anything other than them having "full control" in any negotiation.
My view is that it is really simple to negotiate a deal. All business and people tied into the EU at a point in time stays under old rules. Anything new comes under new rules which (if the EU want to trade with us) will have to be negotiated. BJ is right. The dream of controlling our own destiny has gone (but at the peril of Tories losing the next election).
TM will come back from the negotiations with a worthless piece of white paper.

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Replying to johnjenkins:
Red Leader
By Red Leader
10th Jul 2018 14:04

How would that work?

Let's say my company was formed pre-Referendum/Brexit Day, etc. It would be governed by EU rules but a similar company formed after that date wouldn't be?

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Replying to Red Leader:
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By johnjenkins
10th Jul 2018 14:35

Simple. The old company would conform to EU rules regarding trade with other EU countries (EU law has been enshrined into UK law) and the new company would come under any negotiated trade deal. Yes you could have two similar companies trading under different rules although I can't see any reason why the UK and the EU can't carry on trade as normal. (Oh yes the EU won't let us have access to the single market without the UK having to have 300K+ people per year that our infrastructure can't support).
Red Leader, anything is possible if both parties want it to happen.
The question has to be asked "does the EU want a negotiated deal? I think not.

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Replying to johnjenkins:
paddle steamer
By DJKL
10th Jul 2018 14:39

Probably yes but probably not at the price being offered.

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Replying to DJKL:
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By johnjenkins
10th Jul 2018 14:51

And England will probably win the world cup.

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Replying to johnjenkins:
ALISK
By atleastisoundknowledgable...
11th Jul 2018 11:42

johnjenkins wrote:

And England will probably win the world cup.

Let me respond to this on Monday.

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counting
By Counting numbers
10th Jul 2018 12:14

The ‘negotiations’ will go on for a long time. Whilst it would be great for us to get everything we want, the EU will not roll over that easily. There is far too much at stake for them. Let's see where we are a year from now. I seriously doubt this will be resolved anytime soon.

Totally agree with Mr_awol.

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Replying to Counting numbers:
paddle steamer
By DJKL
10th Jul 2018 12:40

Hopefully something will be in place before a year from now, we currently crash out next March unless we agree an extension .

In addition I suspect that each month that passes more contingency planning (on both sides of the channel) will kick in, possibly adversely impacting the UK, time here likely has a cost.

There certainly appears to have been far more contact this year in say the Netherlands by their government to their business entities re say suggesting that business reviews its supply lines in case no deal does arise. I really cannot see impacted EU companies just sitting on their hands waiting so do expect possible steady stream of EU business entities seeking different , non cross channel, suppliers, if no progress made this year.

Am away over to my house (my pic) in Sweden later this month and will no doubt get a better take on how Swedish business is preparing, one of my neighbours, who acts as a consultant to engineering companies in the EU, usually has a pretty good insight and my other neighbour (my sometimes fishing partner), if around , is an ex Gothenburg Post political journalist with pretty decent insights. (We tend to share a few beers and chat politics on the boat whilst the fish ignore us)

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Glenn Martin
By Glenn Martin
10th Jul 2018 13:14

We have not got the people to negotiate this. Demonstrated by the rats jumping ship yesterday.

BJ and DD had the chance to say their piece on Friday but did not but instead of following it through, and delivering the best result for the people, they jump ship so it doesn't happen on their watch.

BJ brought us into this mess, yet has not got the balls to take it on and finish what he started. He just sits in the sidelines and disrupts but contributes nothing.

To them it is just a job. If they fail they go and get another job, whilst a generation will have to deal with the fall out when it goes pear shaped.

This deal is bigger than party politics and should a cross party approach to deliver the best result for the nation.

Instead it is cascaded into political posturing for who will get the job after its messed up, as clearly no one wants the job now as its pretty much the job no one wants.

Perhaps they should look to the Gareth Southgate for some leadership qualities, and how to get a team of average players to become a unit greater than the sum of of its core components.

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Replying to Glennzy:
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By johnjenkins
10th Jul 2018 13:48

Wrong, DC "got us into this mess" as having a referendum was the only way the Tories could win the election. Then he did a "runner" when he didn't like the outcome.
DD was doing a good job on the negotiation front until TM took over. I would have gone then.
The country voted to come out of the EU not [***] foot around unnegotiations. TM says leaders make decisions. Well TM has decided to allow the EU to carry on with their inflexible rule.
Maybe England winning the world cup might bring it home to some that we don't need to be ruled by a Federal Europe.

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Replying to johnjenkins:
Glenn Martin
By Glenn Martin
10th Jul 2018 13:58

I must have missed the bit when DD was doing a good job, as all I saw was him return after every meeting with his tail between his legs, with very little if any progress made.

As we stand now we are no further forward to establishing what Brexit looks like than we were 18 months ago.

Yes the country voted to come of Europe but most people do not actually know what that means.

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Replying to Glennzy:
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By johnjenkins
10th Jul 2018 14:16

Wrong, the people who voted to come out of the EU knew exactly what it meant and what we wanted. It's more likely that the people who voted to remain only did so because they fear change not because they like being controlled by the EU.
DD didn't come back with his tail between his legs, he realised early on that it was a pointless exercise. The only way the EU will actually negotiate is if they have to and that means we come out with "no deal".
Let me tell you what Brexit should look like.
We come out of the EU. End of.

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Replying to johnjenkins:
Glenn Martin
By Glenn Martin
10th Jul 2018 15:21

Utter cobblers.

90% of people had no idea what leaving the EU would entail, which is why we have the mess now. There was no plan post vote of Brexit was other than it would be better than what we had before.

No one with an ounce of sense would think it would include the madness that leaving the customs union is nor losing any free trade agreement.

The whole campaign was ran on duff information on both sides so how you claim that everyone who voted leave fully understood what they were voting is utter nonsense.

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Replying to Glennzy:
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By johnjenkins
10th Jul 2018 15:50

I like butter coblers.
So let me enlighten you about how I and many others (all of my clients included) saw leaving the EU. Just that, leaving the EU. The only non plan was devised by the Remainers. The mess you refer to has come about because the remainers think they can create such a turmoil that people will say lets just give in. Wrong, I would welcome another referendum. Brexit with "no deal".
Taking your logic. If both sides were given duff information then it must stand to reason that the remainers didn't fully understand what they were voting for also.
No sense nutter.

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Replying to johnjenkins:
paddle steamer
By DJKL
10th Jul 2018 16:01

So, Brexit means leaving the EU with no Single Market Access, no regulatory alignments extant until we get in place all of these that will be required by world standards to trade and that will be required by all the countries we propose to trade with if we are proposing to trade with anyone, timeline re implementation yet to be defined . Well why did Leave not just say so rather than all that Brexit means Brexit nonsense.

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Replying to DJKL:
By SteveHa
10th Jul 2018 16:10

"Brexit means Brexit" came from Theresa May - a remainer during the campaign.

Of course, it's now apparent that "Brexit means Brexit means staying"

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Replying to SteveHa:
paddle steamer
By DJKL
10th Jul 2018 16:24

So, none of the others in cabinet, Gove, Johnson, Fox et al used the phrase? I thought nearly everyone in Cabinet had a period peddling it, or maybe that is my memory playing tricks.

Maybe Gove et al are all really Remainers, or maybe we have had two years of government incapable of defining anything, bereft of definition because none was defined before, during or after the referendum.

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Replying to DJKL:
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By johnjenkins
10th Jul 2018 16:11

If we want to control immigration then we can't have access to the single market. We are the 5th biggest importer in the world so I don't think trading with other countries will be too difficult. Is it worth spending time on doing something (like trying to negotiate with the EU) non productive or spending time on future productive trade deals?

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Replying to johnjenkins:
paddle steamer
By DJKL
10th Jul 2018 14:32

Frankly TM and anyone you care to replace her with is not going to get the EU to give up what they see as their core beliefs, in effect why should we expect them to accede, the problem is not the team but what they are trying to sell.

They may not be the UK's beliefs but they are the beliefs of those across the table. (The we import more from them argument clearly does not work, it does not buy their beliefs, I expect the EU probably considers its member states can make up these potential losses by business migration into the EU as a result of a no deal settlement- they may be correct)

It seems perfectly clear there is a choice, accept conformity to have access or don't accept and do not have access.

The catch with the second is the cost to the UK of an overnight switch to the second is more than its people would appear to be prepared to pay, one cannot carry the people with a message of taking back control but full EU access and then volte face on the access because it was never a possible perm with taking back control.

Given such an impasse there are three scenarios:

1. Exit on 29th no deal, take the pain, take the drop in living standards for 10-15-20 years (who knows). Not sure there is public support for such an approach, are citizens of the UK en masse prepared to pay that price, I really doubt that is the case.

2. Do a soft hybrid fudge (May's third way) and if acceptable to EU (which I am not sure it will be) that is what one gets, 90% of UK unhappy and if lucky 10% happy, the 90% probably believing they have been in effect overcharged for what they get from deal; whilst a good deal is said to be when nobody is happy usually that refers to the parties to the deal rather than within one side.

3. Take EEA/EFTA from the shelf (at least it has been road tested and does not need reinvented) use it as a staging post and gradually slacken regulatory links over time from an EEA/EFTA position. ((Slowly unravel the web). yes, not as far as Brexit supporters wanted, breaks loads of red lines, but if brexit seen as a process not an event possibly not a bad starting point (stage 1)

Personally I would prefer forget all this, lets just get on within the EU, sovereignty in the 21st century is to me somewhat of an illusion anyway,however as a fair few million differ in viewpoint then appears this is not really likely, so on the basis one of the three needs chosen just take 3 and evolve it later.

In the words of Mick, "You Can't Always Get What You Want"

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Replying to DJKL:
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By johnjenkins
10th Jul 2018 14:48

EFTA was the reason we joined the "common market" and I voted to stay in last time. Apart from the inflexibility and the strive for complete control I have no problem with the EU, even one currency.
We cannot have the EU (albeit the courts) telling us we can't deport a national security threat.
We cannot have over 300k plus people per year living in the UK without the infrastructure to support.
We cannot have the EU getting involved in our domestic lives.
We are not the only country to feel like this.
Does the EU really think they can dominate without flexibility. Well it is my view they are in for a rough ride if they do.

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Replying to johnjenkins:
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By DJKL
10th Jul 2018 15:07

That is more than likely, no grouping/structure ever lasts forever (Ask the Roman Empire) so a bit of a one way bet.

A more difficult bet is :

1. Determining the timeline re the EU's demise. Timelimit, you cannot have all time until we reach Milliways

2,Determining in advance if its demise will be via implosion or evolution, i.e. define a demise. ( e.g. evolves into the WU, World Union and then GU, Galaxy Union on to UU, Universe Union)

3. Clearly defining the characteristics and attributes of either outcome to avoid uncertainty defining which has actually taken place (henceforth known as doing a Brexit- an ill defined future event)

4. Living long enough to see the outcome of bet (depending on term applied in 1)

My son got me to place a bet for him on JC becoming PM pre last year's election, I placed the bet for him, he thought he had lost, I then noticed the bet was not time determinate, it still runs, the bet runs forever.

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Replying to DJKL:
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By johnjenkins
10th Jul 2018 15:57

All the bodies had one thing in common. Power without flexibility.
The world is a much smaller place so flexibility has to be the key.
The EU (unless it adapts) will be gone in two years.
I would love to see JC as PM (just to teach the Tories a lesson) however it is not to be. Unless TM goes for a no deal she will be out before the next election. Don't ask me who will take her place, that vision hasn't come to me yet.

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Replying to johnjenkins:
By Mike18
21st Jul 2018 12:41

What domination by the EU? What flexibility by the UK?
There is no common market without common rules, and no economic union without political union.

Here are the Brexit fallacies about the EU debunked;
We always could deport undesirables,
We opted out of what we didn't like, but chose not to use the veto,
Our domestic lives were never interfered with,
UK led the creation of the single market (M Thatcher) and
We always had a part in law making across 27 countries as well as our own.
Brexiters act as if we were never part of the ECJ.

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Replying to Mike18:
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By johnjenkins
23rd Jul 2018 09:54

As for deporting undesirables you had better ask TM about the problems she had with the EU trying to deport a very undesirable.
You really have missed the point about Brexit, Mike.
We do not have the infrastructure to cope with a net influx of 300K plus people, (and was on the rise).
Things have changed dramatically since the days of MT. The goal of the EU is to have a United States of Europe with all of us being Europeans under one parliament. Most people do not want that. In fact I would think most people in Europe don't want that.
You cannot have economic union when all countries are so diverse even within their own countries.
Our domestic lives haven't been interfered with. Where have you been living for the last 30 odd years. I'll give you one example. The EU have come up with the word "worker", which effectively means a "self-employed" person is entitled to holiday and sick pay from the people they do the work for. Absolutely ludicrous.
So what do I propose to replace an archaic, rigid, inflexible Eu.
A flexible approach to trade, movement of labour, borders, exchange of information.
We can still have a great relationship with Europe (so can all the other countries) without the need for domination by a few for their own ends.
That, Mike is what Brexit is all about. Freedom and friendship by consent.

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Replying to DJKL:
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By meadowsaw227
11th Jul 2018 12:01

I live in England, have no house(s) outside of England and therefore have no particular axe to grind either way.
But leave means leave, if it affects a few holidays, pensions, standard of living etc, etc so be it.
I've said before, sometimes one principles/morals cost.

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Replying to meadowsaw227:
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By ollie
11th Jul 2018 14:03

So if Leave meant that you personally lost your livelihood, you'd be quite happy to accept that on the basis that "sometimes one principles/morals cost" ? Or is it just other people's livelihoods that you are happy to sacrifice ?

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Red Leader
By Red Leader
10th Jul 2018 14:05

The truth is that conducting these negotiations in the full glare of publicity is a near-impossible job.

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By andy.partridge
10th Jul 2018 14:09

Who you consider to be doing a good job depends on your desired outcome.

Negotiating with ourselves (ie. undermining) in public is a gift to Barnier. Of course that suits some people.

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By johnjenkins
10th Jul 2018 14:21

The EU should realise that 27(+-) countries being centrally controlled with no flexibility just won't work.
I am all for a united Europe, trading, movement of people, swapping information etc. etc. but you have to have flexibility, not just for the UK.
I predict that if the EU doesn't change its ways it will fall within the next two years.

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Replying to johnjenkins:
Red Leader
By Red Leader
10th Jul 2018 14:46

People said that about the Eurozone during the Greek crisis. Didn't happen.
I agree about the dysfunction of the EU but I think you will be surprised by how much strain it can take before it breaks.

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Replying to Red Leader:
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By andy.partridge
10th Jul 2018 15:00

It always makes me smile how it is the supposedly young people in the UK who are disproportionately in favour of the EU yet apparently clueless or uncaring about 40%-50% youth unemployment in Greece and Spain.

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Replying to Red Leader:
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By johnjenkins
10th Jul 2018 15:02

I think the Greek crisis was the start of the end for the EU. The immigration problem just shows what the EU is not capable of and how much voice they actually have on the world scene.
It's amazing how in history all these powerful bodies come unstuck.

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Replying to johnjenkins:
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By DJKL
10th Jul 2018 15:15

Not amazing, merely inevitable, entropy.

But some manage to hang around and evolve for a very , very long time, Romans spring to mind, starts small, expands, holds expansion for period, retracts,multiple iterations of power structures within this period, division into two seats of power, the latter seat surviving the original. the bet is not will it collapse, but when, 1,2,4,8,16.32,64,128,256,512... years, when .

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Replying to DJKL:
Red Leader
By Red Leader
10th Jul 2018 15:17

My bet is on 16.32 years. I do so like precision.

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Replying to Red Leader:
paddle steamer
By DJKL
10th Jul 2018 15:25

..................................
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..................................

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Just in training.

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Replying to DJKL:
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By johnjenkins
10th Jul 2018 16:15

That's before people became more aware of what is going on.

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Replying to johnjenkins:
Red Leader
By Red Leader
10th Jul 2018 15:16

johnjenkins wrote:

I think the Greek crisis was the start of the end for the EU. The immigration problem just shows what the EU is not capable of and how much voice they actually have on the world scene.
It's amazing how in history all these powerful bodies come unstuck.


Well quite but predicting the timescale is impossible I think.
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Replying to Red Leader:
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By johnjenkins
10th Jul 2018 16:00

Unless they adapt I give them 2 years.

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