Cameron fires EU referendum starting gun
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He started with AccountingWEB in the heady days of 2015, where he worked first as business editor and then editor of the site. After two years as editor of ICAEW Insights, he returned to AccountingWEB in 2022 with a specific...
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I agree Mr M
they also get the odds right on Strictly !
I also use oddschecker http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics
the outers wont listen to anything that conflicts with their view ;-)
Anyone can predict
things on a daily basis. let's face It, it's not rocket science. Did betfair have Leicester to get into champions league never mind win the league at the start of the season. No, of course not.
@carnmores What is there to conflict with "we can't deport a national security threat"? What is there to conflict with "we can't stop umpteen millions of immigrants coming to settle"?
I'm a great believer in the people of this Nation and they will vote by a majority to get rid of the EU weight around our necks holding us back.
£10,000
OK put your money where your mouth is. We set up an escrow account, I put in £10k and you put in £10k. Carnmores can be the third person who can sign off payments. If you are right you get to take out the £20k on 23 June, if not it is Goodnight Vienna - or maybe it is Hello Vienna!! - and I get the cash.
Your expectations are completely ridiculous, reminds me of all my Scottish relatives who told me I was nuts saying the Yes campaign was doomed to defeat.
@mm
Thank you for your kind donation. However I don't gamble, not even the lottery or stock market. As I don't need your money and you have £10k to spare I'm sure Great Ormond Street or your local children's hospice would be only too pleased to accept.
As for putting something where my mouth is, I take your point and have decided to research the economics and probabilities with a view to actively campaign.
I don't need to research the fact that we can't deport a national security threat or that our infrastructure cannot cope with upwards of 250K (net) immigrants. Oh yes and that the EU will never reform.
Status quo
I wonder why people think voting remain will give us status quo.
I also think the vote will be for 'remain' but personally, remain should mean that you will accept a federal Europe, one army, one tax base, one government (the EU), everyone will be in Schengen and using the Euro (unless it collapses). That is the aim of the EU and any country not upholding those values will be sidelined and punished.
The vetos and opt outs are being slowly eroded. Voting only requires 55% for laws to be passed. It's the UK cherry picking that has annoyed the EU elite. Either take all, or take nothing. No half in/half out.
Good response to Airbus from UKIP
“We are deeply disappointed by this cynical and self-serving move by Airbus which arrogantly places their profit margins at the centre of the debate instead of the real interests of its employees and the people of Wales.
“We disagree fully with the assertions that Airbus has chosen to share with its staff, and would remind everyone that leaving the EU is much more than simply accommodating the interests of big business alone. Remaining in the EU is essentially signing up to the long term erosion of UK sovereignty and democracy, subscribing to the gross uncertainty of foreign rule by a failing political project, while pressures on public services will continue to rise to unmanageable levels due to uncontrolled immigration. It’s also important to point out that the stranglehold of bureaucracy on small and medium sized enterprises, which make up 98% of businesses in Wales, means that overall only major multinationals can benefit from the UK being a member of the EU. Meanwhile, the steel industry have been all but destroyed, as demonstrated by the closure of 8 of the 9 major metal ore refineries since 2007 and the ongoing crisis in Port Talbot. Given the trade deficit we currently have with the rest of the EU it’s safe to assume a free trade deal would be drawn up rapidly following Brexit, yet even under the albeit highly unlikely but worst case scenario, where the EU could choose to impose tariffs, under World Trade Organisation rules, the cost would be a maximum of £7bn to the UK economy per year, compared to almost double that in the £13bn we have to pay each year as a member. It would also harm the EU significantly more than Britain.
“We don’t think it’s right for big business to try to influence the referendum by scaremongering among employees and believe that responsible employers would acknowledge that the referendum debate is about far more than their profit margins, but the future of the country as a whole for generations to come.
“Given the ongoing issues for the single currency, the ambition for deeper integration and further expansion, and the failure to deal with major crises such as the migrant situation in Greece, we would argue that the greatest uncertainty for Britain comes with passing control of our country and its laws to unelected, faceless, power hungry bureaucrats in Brussels, when we may not get another chance to vote again for decades.”
I don't really understand how these trade "deals" work and am in need of some enlightenment.
Assuming we left the EU - Would the likely trade "deal" simply be that the EU member states will charge private UK companies a certain percentage of the value of the goods we export, at a rate specific to the goods in question?
Or are these so called deals in addition to the standard import/export tariffs?
World trade tariffs
Or are these so called deals in addition to the standard import/export tariffs?
The World Trade Tariffs are used when there is no other trade agreement. An agreed bilateral trade tariff trumps all other tariffs, or in the case of an FTA (Free Trade Agreement), there will be no tariffs at all on certain goods/services. Trade agreements apply to both imports and exports.
If we leave the EU, we will have no trade agreements initially, as the EU won't allow us to have any of our own. We are restricted by the EU's trade agreements, which take years to complete because they are negotiating for 28 different countries. Naturally, the first trade agreement to be made will be with the EU, and hopefully, the other countries that have trade agreements with the EU will allow us to continue with those trade deals until we agree new ones.
@jimferd
The easiest way to understand is that if we leave the EU we start with negotiating an exit deal. Then we are free to deal with the rest of the world on a market basis. So ball is in our court and not some faceless unelected bureaucrat.
The way I understand it is that we're currently free to trade with the rest of the world unfettered by the EU anyway. Please correct me if I'm wrong as I genuinely don't know.
The only major potential downside to leaving the EU as I see it is that the EU states may charge increased duties on goods exported to the EU from the UK. This could in turn make the UK potentially more expensive for private EU companies to buy from and hence we may export even less than we do already.
If this were to happen, we could of course be able to charge equal duties on stuff we import. This would mean that the EU companies were more expensive.
I guess that since we import a lot more than we export, the EU member states would either suffer for our reduced custom if we could find a cheaper place to buy from, or UK companies profits would suffer.
What we need is a gigantic version of My Supermarket to see if it would be cheaper for us to leave or not.
More or less correct
The way I understand it is that we're currently free to trade with the rest of the world unfettered by the EU anyway. Please correct me if I'm wrong as I genuinely don't know.
We can currently trade with non-EU countries using EU agreements, or World Trade Organisation tariffs, while in the EU. What we cannot do is agree our own trade agreements with ANY country while in the EU, so if the EU doesn't have a trade deal with that country, or the agreement doesn't cover the goods/services we want to trade in, we are hamstrung! There is no alternative to the World Trade tariffs,
If we leave the EU we can continue using World Trade tariffs, or make our own trade agreements to suit our goods/services, not the goods/services of the other 27 countries.
Thanks for explaining that.
It sounds like that if UK companies couldn't find alternative, cheaper non-EU suppliers though - they would be forced to suck up the increased EU levies, if we weren't able to negotiate a deal with the EU.
Our bargaining power (in terms of alternate suppliers) would depend on non-EU markets it seems. If other non-EU counties worked out more expense to buy from for example, the EU would be laughing.
@jimferd
there is no way the EU will throw away our exports by imposing high charges, because we import more than we export. So all this fuss about it will cost us loads to come out is utter nonsense. Other countries will bite our hand off for our business. Our bargaining power is in our choice of supplier.
@johnjenkins
I wouldn't dismiss higher charges as "utter nonsense".
While I agree that the EU wont impose prohibitive charges, but they'd be fools to charge anything less than enough to make them marginally cheaper to us than non-EU alternatives.
Re: Global Tariffs:
I wouldn't dismiss higher charges as "utter nonsense".
While I agree that the EU wont impose prohibitive charges, but they'd be fools to charge anything less than enough to make them marginally cheaper to us than non-EU alternatives.
Here you are, Jim. Searchable data base as well.
https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news15_e/stat_29oct15_e.htm
Traditionally, import tariffs were mainly used as protection: certain imports, however, carry additional duties; e.g. spirits, wine and tobacco.
As global trade exploded, the old GATT (General Agreements on Tariffs and Trade), was archaic.
Problem with tariffs, when they are punitive (say the EU against an exited UK), is they start Trade Wars. "Dumping" which is defined as exporting good at less than cost (As China is currently doing with steel: and Japan did years back with electronic components, particularly memory chips) is theoretically proscribed under WTO regulations. At one point, West Germany imposed a massive VAT charge on electronic calculator (from memory circa 200%). Mexico, prior to NAFTA (North American Free Trade Association) imposed 200% odd on import of new cars: as they wished to encourage their own automotive industry; which in any case was Ford, GM and Volkswagen.
A very useful resource for truth and fact rather than scaremongering propaganda is here:
www.www.facts4eu.org
@jimferd
But the EU won't know what we are paying other countries because we will be able to negotiate our own deals so if they want us to buy their goods they will have to be competitive. It will be a whole new ballgame.
Like many people i just don't know what to believe and probably will feel exactly the same come voting day.
The facts4eu website seems a tad on the impartial side. I think their next addition will be some devil horns and a trident added to the frowning pictures of cameron and osborne.
I hope this link works
If not, I'll try again. Here is a superb moment in the EU parliament. Merkels face is a real picture. :)
Does anyone deny that the Euro has only benefitted one country, and that all the other Eurozones are paying the price?
Of Course It Has!
If not, I'll try again. Here is a superb moment in the EU parliament. Merkels face is a real picture. :)
Does anyone deny that the Euro has only benefitted one country, and that all the other Eurozones are paying the price?
Yes ineed Shirley.
If Germany had not have joined the Euro mechanism, then the DM would have been far far higher and Germany exports would have been much more expensive.
The Bundesbank dominated the Euro and the ECB from the beginning: since Germans were paranoid over any potential repeat of the Weimar monetary collapse, their grandparents lectured them about.
My prediction has come true
That there would be far more money put into the Remain Campaign than the Leave Campaign.
Cameron has spent £9.3m of taxpayers money on a leaflet for every home in the country pushing .... guess what ... Remain!. The cap for each side is supposed to be £7m! The Remain campaign will get another £7m of taxpayers money.
It's hardly cricket, but I guess the PM wants to make his own rules!
The stay campaign are
getting desperate. Nigel hasn't even started his spiel yet. I notice DC doesn't take his jacket off and roll his sleeves up now. Another PR exercise, no doubt. What price (betfair) now that the unions have started to realise that the EU has total power over us.
Well, the Dutch have objected to an EU decision
Democracy has spoken. Will the EU honour the democratic vote or will they ride roughshod over it? The EU are pushing ahead as if the deal has already been ratified.
I have a feeling they will honour it for now, at least until the UK referendum result is announced, In the past they haven't accepted no as meaning no and they will keep pushing their agenda until they get the result they wanted in the first place.
If we vote Remain, there will be LOTS of new EU regulations announced, along with further watering down (or prevention) of the new 'reforms' negotiated by Cameron.. They are holding back until the cat is in the bag.
My guess is new rules to disperse the refugees and who will pay for them to be announced straight after the referendum. The £6bn to Turkey is just the start.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-netherlands-eu-idUKKCN0X3001
Dutch referendum
Democracy has spoken. Will the EU honour the democratic vote or will they ride roughshod over it? The EU are pushing ahead as if the deal has already been ratified.
I have a feeling they will honour it for now, at least until the UK referendum result is announced, In the past they haven't accepted no as meaning no and they will keep pushing their agenda until they get the result they wanted in the first place.
I was wrong on this one. I thought they would wait until our referendum was over to ride roughshod over democracy, but democracy is to be ignored. Let's all welcome the Ukraine and Turkey into the EU. It's what the EU wants, and they get what they want, one way or another.
funding greek tobacco farming
Surely the simple answer to that is because it is a smokescreen to distract us from all the migrants traipsing through Greece, collecting the contraband smokes on their way :)
As far as do we count any more because of the lack of democracy? Arent we just looking at delegated democracy where we trust (if that can ever be the right word with politicians) enough to put them in a position where they can choose to vote whichever way they want on our behalf without any kind of penalty to them) maybe they should be made to sit in Taser chairs so that we voters can zap them if they do something that we disagree with...?
I Like that
instead of the naughty step, the TASER CHAIR (said with a deep menacing voice). Perhaps the idiot that cocked up the CIS months should be Tasered. It might wake them up.
Project Grievance continues
Somehow Farage, Boris et all thought Cameron was not going to fight hard. Given the way he got involved in Scotland and the "Miliband in Sturgeon's pocket" campaign last year how could this be a credible assumption?
If Brexit are going to have a further 2 months of non-stop moaning and whingeing they will lose, people in the central ground do not vote for moaners and whingers.
A petition for the Brexiteers ....
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/116762
... and anyone else who thinks the government should be giving the public the facts about BOTH sides of the in/out referendum.
Is the UK the same as Turkey?
That is, telling the media what they can report, and what they can't?
Remember when the UK media was told NOT to report the protest by disabled people when they protested about the budget?
There was a general strike in France on 31/03/16 and the French are planning a massive protest tomorrow night, and it appears people in Berlin and other major EU cities are planning one too.
This is in response to the changes to employment legislation. Does anyone know what the proposed changes are?
EDIT: Don't bother, I've found something ....
The Social Contract:
That is, telling the media what they can report, and what they can't?
Remember when the UK media was told NOT to report the protest by disabled people when they protested about the budget?
There was a general strike in France on 31/03/16 and the French are planning a massive protest tomorrow night, and it appears people in Berlin and other major EU cities are planning one too.
This is in response to the changes to employment legislation. Does anyone know what the proposed changes are?
EDIT: Don't bother, I've found something ....
In order to comprehend the Social Contract, firstly, one has to understand France; its people; its form of democracy and the general ethos.
Primarily, France is a working man's state: this goes back, culturally, to the French Revolution.
Next one must truly understand the Fifth Republic of Charles de Gaulle. Enshrined in the Civil Code of the fifth republic is the absolute right of assembly and peaceful protest. If French unions and the working man's position is threatened, then France will come to a complete grinding halt: the French love la grèves!
The French, mainly, accept high levels of "Cotisations": i.e. Social Taxes on income; they accept these as the benefits (Health, Retirement, Social Security for unemployment, disability etc) are equally high.
Sadly, as with all socialists who delight in grandiose ideological visions and spending other prople's hard earned cash, M. le President Hollande, went on a blitzkrieg after being elected; including expanding an already bloated bureacracy with yet more pointless "Fonctionares": civil servants. And other moronic left wing stuff.
If I criticise la belle France for one thing it is lacking the brain to encourage, germinate and foster true real entrepreneurs: starting a small business in France is extremely difficult. And from a tax and cotisations perepective far too bloody expensive!
Still, I wish him luck; trying to reform the Social Contract destroyed Alain Juppé's political career and as the Indy item says, Dominigue de Villepin's too.
Apparently
the Government are for staying, that's why the leaflets were printed (the government is allowed a say?). Correction O DC of assumptions. As some ministers have decided to join brexit then it's not up to the government to say "the government says". This is a one to one vote not a Tory or Labour or SNP or union "say so". The government speak for the people of the UK, not as a separate entity.
Signed the petition but I doubt if anything will come of it.
@mm Why do you call people with a cause to fight, moaners and whingers? Is it because secretly you know we are going to leave the EU and are worried? You've no need Shirley and I will take care of you when we leave.
Let me make 2 things clear to you MM that should worry you a lot.
1 Staying in means we cannot deport national security threats.
2 Staying in means we have to accept upwards of 250K immigrants net each year that our infrastructure cannot handle.
Do you know why people are moaning ad whinging about that MM? It's because it is wrong and we cannot do anything about it except to come out of the EU.
I wasn't questioning the validity of the strikes and protests
In order to comprehend the Social Contract, firstly, one has to understand France; its people; its form of democracy and the general ethos.
I was questioning why I hadn't seen anything in the news. I also wonder why other important things never make the news.
It may be as simple as 'not being as interesting as the latest celebrity news', but it may also be something more sinister.
Dead boring
By definition most people in this thread are interested in this stuff. That separates us from 70% of the UK voters who consider the EU to be dead boring and would much sooner know which record company the Voice winner has signed to. Hence you are more likely to see stuff in the media about the Voice or X Factor than the EU. In polls, as a topic the EU regularly comes in at number 5 or 6 on the list of issues for voters. This whole thing is an utter waste of time and money and I bet Cameron for one wishes he'd had the balls to tell his party to shove off with it until they'd got a new leader.
you may be wrong about Juppe
my french friends say he is the most likely next president as Hollande is pain grille (sorry no accents) tho dont write off Macron
You may be wrong about Juppe: ???
my french friends say he is the most likely next president as Hollande is pain grille (sorry no accents) tho dont write off Macron
Quote: "The only prime minister to try to hold firm against a public service general strike, Alain Juppé, had to cave in ignominiously after two months in 1995, and his boss Jacques Chirac lost a general election just 18 months later. In short, courage doesn’t pay in France. "
Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/10121619/France-...
Juppé was Chirac's sacrifical goat, over the Social Contract.
In majority, the French voter doesn't give a fig for national politics: they are far more concerned with primarily, their mayor (who is elected) and the Prefet; the head honcho of the department in which they live.
Politically and in terms of administration, France is divided into national government and certain services (police, in part); Regions; Departements, Cantons; and finally commune. Each commune has a mayor; as does each canton: all elected.
Threaten, politically, the status quo (in terms of sacred facets which very much include the Social Contract) and a politician is dead in the water! And the whole country grinds to a halt: roads jammed and static thanks to HGVs; docks idle; airports closed; de rien.
I know my mayor, on a personal basis: if I or indeed anyone else has a local problem he can fix, then I toddle off to see him...
Like the Silician, the Corsican, the Turk and the Greek, believe me, French people outside Paris (which a vast majority do not even consider "French"!) nurse grudges and affronts for ever: and pass these on to the children and grandchildren!
If a Frenchman, let alone une Anglaise, move into a commune in a distant part of France (in particular, La France Profonde), they don't even speak to them for over 25 years...
Now, I would be the very first to admit, employment terms and customs and practice in France are stupidly archaic: for example, since train drivers and stokers from the early days of steam, when these worthies worked in dreadful conditions of heat, steam, wind, rain etc, were retired off at 50 by SNCF: today, they sit in air conditioned luxury, listening to music, relaxing in a nice upholstered armchair. But still expect to retire at 50 on a full pension!
Who will reform it? Who dares?
Je ne sais quoi..
33% again
On the face of it another boring week. But in fact at the weekend Brexit got to a new high of 36% on the back of "Dodgy Dave"'s tax haven woes. But that was a brief moment of glory before returning to where it started the week. Now £3.5m in matched bets which is decent for a political bet - the final of a Grand Slam will typically see £5m to £10m, and "winner of Premier League 2016" has so far seen £21m by way of comparison. So if the Brexity members of this thread are trousers as well as talk they can have £30k at 2 to 1 on Betfair no trouble.
I notice your
previous post said Mouthy Members, MM. Now it says Brexity members. Change of heart or initials?
thought better of it
Post in haste repent at leisure. It was only up for 30 seconds. I only mentioned the war once, thought I had got away with it.
Poll of polls
The FT poll of polls looks interesting 43% stay, 42% leave - the closest it has been in recent months.
https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/
I agree with one of Mr Mischief's earlier comments that there is usually a swing to the status quo on polling day. However, it's probably a month or so before people really start to focus on the EU pros and cons, albeit that many couldn't care less and won't bother voting one way or another.
When the big TV debates start that's when there could be real movements in the polls. Although I would consider myself a moderate Eurosceptic, from my somewhat biased perspective, I have never seen the pro EU people come out of these big debates well. As an example, look at the Intelligence Squared EU debate from 3 years ago - an initially pro EU audience had swung to anti EU by the end of it.
It's going to be close - I suspect a lot closer than the Scottish Referendum, where the voters were being asked to decide upon a much more fundamental upheaval (which incidentally would have also included at least temporarily leaving the EU).
Interesting today
The Times came up with a poll 39% equal exit and remain. 17% undecided. 5% won't bother to vote. I think the won't bother to vote will be much higher. I also think a lot of undecided won't vote. So we are left with how many stayers will move to the leavers. I think once you've decided to leave that's it whereas the stayers could be persuaded to leave. So the outsiders forecast of 60-40 to leave looks stronger. Especially given that confidence in DC is waning. I notice JC making his statement included reforms. No chance.
Who's right?
Self & spouse had a discussion last night.
Spouse thinks as follows:
UK economy is totally, er, mucked up - especially manufacturing, construction & public sectors. If we stay in EU we can be carried along by the stronger economies of mainland Europe. Therefore vote = IN.
I think as follows:
UK economy is totally mucked up - especially manufacturing, construction & public sectors. EU expansion to south & east has been politically motivated & is gravely damaging to EU economy. The EU as an economic entity is going to fall apart over the next 10 years or so. We will escape the worst effects of that disintegration if we leave now. Therefore vote = OUT.
Which of us is right?
RM
Correct:
Self & spouse had a discussion last night.
Spouse thinks as follows:
UK economy is totally, er, mucked up - especially manufacturing, construction & public sectors. If we stay in EU we can be carried along by the stronger economies of mainland Europe. Therefore vote = IN.
Carried along? Submergered, marginalised and flooded with even more unemployable EU migrants seeking state handouts, particularly when Turkey joins the mutual self-destruction society, rather!
Remember, Dodgy Dave's "Deal" on a four year wait for benefits hasn't been ratified, as yet; and cannot be until the EU parliament agrees. Which clearly they will not.
The root of this problem is simple: Britain alone, thanks to Labour operates an One-Demand benefit system. Whereas the majority of EU states operate a contributions-based benefits system. Same with health.
http://www.invest.gov.tr/en-us/investmentguide/investorsguide/employeesa...
Population of Turkey: 75 million. Stats on employment, income, education et al:
http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/turkey/
I think as follows:UK economy is totally mucked up - especially manufacturing, construction & public sectors. EU expansion to south & east has been politically motivated & is gravely damaging to EU economy. The EU as an economic entity is going to fall apart over the next 10 years or so. We will escape the worst effects of that disintegration if we leave now. Therefore vote = OUT.
Which of us is right?
RM
Your analysis is correct, RM
I've been looking
into the economics of leaving so that (although I've already made up my mind) I would have a much better understanding. Well, surprise, surprise there is no proof that if we leave we will be worse of economically. It's all down to what we can negotiate with the EU and the rest of the world.
One thing that did come out of my findings was the distinct similarities between the demise of the USSR and where we are today with the EU.
And Just Today...
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/fil...
Worth ploughing through, as a speed reading exercise.
I'm dreading the Ukraine and Turkey joining
They are being fast tracked into the EU. Why??????
50% of the Ukraine still think they are Russian.
The EU are welcoming Turkey and can't get them into the EU quick enough. Turkey is not European (only 5% is in Europe), an ISIS supporter, a country that doesn't like free speech, a country where the citizens earn only a quarter of the UK minimum wage. Turkey is blackmailing the EU and Erdogan deliberately provokes Russia at every opportunity, and the Christians have been booted out of Turkey (pretty much) so it doesn't say much for their 'tolerance'.
Once Turkey and the Ukraine join, we will be counting the days until war breaks out between the EU and Russia (and encouraged by the USA). Why are the EU defying their own rules about who can join?
Project Fear
I thought the Brexit lot were against Project fear? Another risk we have if we stay in the EU is that we'll be swamped with immigrants from the Andromeda galaxy in 2040 or so, don't forget to put that one down Brexiters.
@MM
Don't forget those immigrants have two pairs of hands and 6 legs. So they are going to be most welcome. Mind you I bet the Chinese get a deal with them first.
So how will losing £4300 a year until 2030 affect you?
Ukraine and Turkey
Originally, the EU was restricted to Christian member states. Whatever happened to that? I don't think the economic arguments will carry weight. Whichever way you look at it, the basic ideology of the UK, i.e. our way of life, isn't supported by these new applicants. So we risk having the "British" way of life being watered down if these countries are allowed to join, and if they are, then that could sway the referendum vote.
the Brexiteers
cannot abide even countenance anything that disagrees with their position, its very sad.