What might happen if a Brexit deal is agreed this week
Brian Palmer, tax policy adviser at AAT, considers where Boris Johnson’s new Brexit deal could leave the UK business community and outlines where accountants and bookkeepers should focus their attention.
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The answer is that there might be a start on talks re trade arrangements which will certainly take more than 14 months to develop and in reality could go anywhere. In the meantime UK business, still with no certainties except that it will be 99% certain there will be no CU or SM membership for the mainland UK will start implementing whatever plans they have developed, cannot see them hanging around for cliff edge two (vis a vis the FTA or otherwise) to see what will happen.
HMG will need to decide what, if anything, they can do with say US and other countries pre any deal they may/may not broker with EU as what they commit to with one will impact what they can likely commit to with the other, sequencing featured in the WA/PD and will further feature in any FT agreements.
When all the dust likely settles (and frankly really cannot see EU deal in 3 years 2 months (max allowed at present with a transition extension)) I will be three years from full retirement, expect Indy ref 2 will have been run and frankly will have lost the will to live having had the period 2014 to 2022 removed from any form of meaningful life planning. Oh, and likely the house in my picture above will have been sold, no E11 so no reside in retirement part of the year abroad so no point continuing to own a property abroad- that's best part of fifteen years blown.
But, on a plus point re some certainty, wherever I in future live in the UK, from now until I die,I do know one thing; The Conservative Party will never, at any level of election, get my vote again- from 1979 onward I in the main have backed them, no more, they can frankly implode, destroy themselves, do anything they like, JC can bring under state control nearly everything he can think of but that will not sway me. I may not vote for his lot but I certainly will not vote for the Conservatives, they can promise me anything, the one thing they will never get again is my vote; so at least out of Brexit uncertainty I have formed some certainty, the Conservative Party are total *******.
Don't give up on the dream - 90/180 rule leaves some time to travel visa free, although I suspect you are far from alone in the retirement plans being ruined :-(
I actually do not see being unable to reside as the issue, it is health insurance that is the issue (whilst we can get 30 day holiday cover it is tricky and expensive for my other half to get permanent health insurance).
Get on a boat and get out now so you have residency before B-day! Remote working is ever so much fun.
That is not possible, my wife's mother lives here and although pretty active is hitting 90 later this month, it is not an option. If we had no family, no kids, I would do it, sell up, totally retire, live on pensions/investment income, but my other half will not do a permanent jump, x months a year yes, all year will not happen.
I am reminded of my grandfather saying he wished to retire to India but Attlee gave it away.
It is odd that you blame the conservatives. They promised a referendum and won an election on the basis of that commitment. The people voted to leave.
It was Labour that introduced mass immigration without adding the necessary infrastructure in housing, healthcare and education.
It was the EU that failed to make a case for Britain to remain and offer David Cameron anything but 'thin gruel' after his trip to Berlin.
A majority of Parliamentarians voted for a referendum and the people voted again in 2017 for parties supporting leave.
I am sorry you consider your life plans disturbed but perhaps your blame should be spread a bit more widely and thinly.
No, frankly am still awaiting a cogent economic argument in favour of Brexit, it is economic lunacy and the Conservatives can ,and will ,reap what they have sown if the economy does start to unravel.
Doubt it will be an issue ten years from now, catch is I do not have that time to wait pre retirement, I think the chance of Scotland remaining within the Union post the sorts of Brexit Boris and pals appear to be aiming at is pretty low so I likely will again become an EU citizen, just not when I want to be one.
The arguments in favour of Brexit are essentially political: restoring powers to Parliament and those elected and accountable to us. However economic benefits include saving the EU budget contribution, closer trading links with the rest of the world and the setting of tariffs in the interest of the UK.
I am very concerned about the United Kingdom remaining together (the most successful union of nations in the World) but take comfort in the fact that the SNP do not represent the majority in Scotland. Not all in the SNP wish to remain.
I hope that many of the reciprocal benefits of EU membership(healthcare, driving licences, security etc) can be maintained post Brexit. We will after all still be European just not members of the EU.
Unfortunately for the Conservatives if they don't achieve a meaningful Brexit they will start to unravel anyway.
@KR, can anyone explain HOW we get better trade deals being 2% of the world economy, rather than as part of one of the 3 main trading blocks? Ie US/EU & China?
That has considerably baffled me for some time.
The only ones done so far are "roll overs" on the EU terms. Canada has told us to whistle. The US wants us to massively deregulate and privatise our healthcare as a precondition. China is likely to want a lot from us too.
Moreover, specifically what products would be be able to sell better on our own rather than piggybacking on EU's deals? I cant identify a single sector that woudl be better off. Clearly complex manufacture such as Motor and Aerospace cant really function without free trade to the EU. The way i see it services are getting stuffed big time with the City losing its prime spot to Berlin. The Education & Research sector of which we are world leaders, is really suffering now from lack of movement of staff from the US and other locations, and will get much worse with the loss of freedom of movement around Europe for everyone. Its already hitting key research projects (my wife is in this sector, and being pushed to move to the EU which we are resisting as I am not going anywhere)
Just not seen any concreted examples of what sectors are supposed to be doing well out of any of this.
if we end up in a customs union (ie keeping free trade with the EU) then we will be a rule taker to the EU, so effectively giving away control to the EU, not 'taking it back'. I appreciate the UK has a tendency to vote a load of idiots, washed up types and downright fools into the EU parliament, but we do have (or did have) significant influence there if only we took it seriously.
I just don't get what the point is.
Even the racists are going to be annoyed when they work out we are going to need lots more brown and black faces if we stop having cheap labour from the EU. So some silver lining there when the penny drops!
Trade deals made by the EU are in the EU's interests-not necessarily those of the UK. Tariffs on clothing and footwear are to protect Italy, those on tobacco are to protect Greece, those on cars were largely to protect Germany. Paradoxically the removal of tariffs on Japanese cars has encouraged the Japanese to exit the UK - again not in the UK's interests.
In future the UK will be able to ban live animal exports and stop imports of food products from countries not upholding the highest of animal welfare standards. Hopefully the UK will have the highest standards of food labelling and animal welfare.
The problem with negotiating trade with the EU is that the UK caved in to the EU's wholly unreasonable demand of sequencing trade talks until the withdrawal agreement was signed. A FTA should be in place on withdrawal.
Trump is an anglophile and wants a trade agreement with the UK. What is wrong with American companies bidding for contracts with the NHS in the same way as European companies? Lower costs and better choice will benefit patients and the taxpayer.
Complex trade functions all over the world outside the EU. BAe manufactures in the US,Canada as well as Europe. Tata makes cars in India and its subsidiary JLR manufactures in Europe and China. Of course we would like a tariff free arrangement with the EU but what can we do if they won't talk about it?
One of the major benefits of leaving is having a fair immigration policy that doesn't discriminate against people outside the EU. I am sure that we will see Americans, Australians and others finding it much easier to come to the UK. The restrictions on cheap foreign labour (where the employer gets the taxpayer to pick up the bill for education,health and housing) will encourage capital investment and boost productivity.
It is a shame that the Brexit party is the largest party in the EU parliament but had we left as promised this would not have happened.
Staying in the Customs Union is not Brexit and you are right - this would be worse than staying in the EU.
Perhaps if David Cameron had obtained the fundamental reform and treaty change promised we would have voted to stay. But we have voted now and I would suggest that any extension is used to try and formulate the post withdrawal trading arrangements so that the withdrawal at least in trading terms is as seamless as possible for the UK and the EU.