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Will my next motor be electric ?

3rd Sep 2017
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So greenwash has won the day and we look forward to the demise of the internal combustion engine by 2040. One can hardly wait but the question is when to ditch the ICE and take the plunge with a so called "green" motor. As for now I cannot see any significant impact on residual values but there will come a tipping point and nobody wants to be left holding the parcel when the music stops. At that point there will be a precipitous lurch downwards in demand for second hand vehicles as they are become like a leasehold property.

Trouble is nobody has a clue as to how efficient and convenient electric cars will become and at what point they may be left with an electric vehicle that is yesterday's technology.

And what about servicing and repairs ? The demise of the local independent garage beckons and along with it a chunk of jobs. 

The government has kicked it into the long grass to the extent that 23 years is some way off but then again it will come around quicker than you think but it will be a mess caused by somebody else. 

The only upside I can think of is the demise of certain repressive regimes who have been propped up by oil . Unless of course it finlly shuts up those pesky green lobbyists who have wreaked havoc on our electric bills and landed the blame at the door of the utility companies whose share prices have been trashed. 

All in all it is going to be a pretty exciting rollercoaster of a ride in the big wide world with allegiances shifting as powers ebbs aways.

By the way I am no Luddite but simply think the market can do a far better job of introducing fundamental changes than any administration can. Isn't that why we voted to leave the EU ?

 

 

 

 

Replies (4)

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By Peter Cane
04th Sep 2017 10:04

Will all cars go electric? Not in my lifetime I'm sure of that. I had a holiday in the Lizard, Cornwall last month. Down there on the most southerly point of mainland Britain, there was no mobile signal. If it hadn't been for the Wifi at the cottage, we'd have been completely cut off, not that that was necessarily a bad thing.
I can't imagine the Lizard (or the rest of Cornwall for that matter - substitute Lake District, Scotland, Wales etc as appropriate) being peppered with the thousands of electric charging points that would be required for this to work.
Besides which, our electricity power supply infrastructure would never cope with so many people having to charge their cars up. I think fully electric cars are a pipedream. Hybrid cars I can see a case for, but no way for fully electric.

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Locutus of Borg
By Locutus
04th Sep 2017 20:26

Living in London, I don't feel I need a car, electric or otherwise. But I am interested in the electric revolution that is starting and look forward to a world in which there is less pollution on the streets and no need to buy fossil fuels from mostly repressive regimes.

Some people are comparing the newly released Tesla Model 3 as the motor industry's "iPhone moment", although they won't start arriving on these shores until 2018. It looks like the whole motor industry is being forced to react to that threat, with most other manufacturers looking to release new or updated electric and hybrid models in the next few years.

I believe market forces will be the driver that changes behaviour much more than government targets of banning new ICE sale cars from 2040.

At the moment electric car battery range with current lithium ion batteries takes you up to 310 miles on a charge (Tesla Model 3 extended range) and it takes several hours to recharge unless at a super-charger.

However, there is a huge amount of research into alternative energy storage technologies such as solid state and super capacitors. If is generally believed that if you can get these to produce a 500 mile + range and a recharge time of around 10 minutes then the ICE will become history.

Finally, there has been lot of progress in driverless technology in the past few years. Once that is perfected, most people will not even need to own a car any more - they will just hail one when they need it. Tesla's Elon Musk thinks level 5 autonomy is 2 years away. I think this is a bit optimistic - probably 5 to 10 is more likely.

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paddle steamer
By DJKL
05th Sep 2017 17:07

The main thing to do is to hide away all those future classic cars in your barns/garages/similar; as they become scarcer their values will increase.

There will either need to be some form of licence permitting classic car runs , and a means to acquire the petrol for these , or the classic car clubs will need to start an underground movement to fight back, with a black market in petrol- maybe petrol supplies earmarked for lawnmowers and chainsaws can be diverted for nefarious purposes like a tour through the Borders or a motor trip into Sutherland.

Irrespective of legislation my yellow Scimitar SS1 (1987) is not going anywhere. (And that, with the proposals, may be the literal truth)

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By Knight Rider
08th Sep 2017 15:08

When I used to watch Tomorrows World in the 1970s we were heading for another ice age and would soon be in flying cars and working from home. Electric cars will catch on where the infrastructure is put in place but my old Jag and TR7 will be around for many years to come. By 2040 there will be other developments that we haven't even thought of yet. Perhaps teleporting will catch on.

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