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Back to the office after Easter?

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The news on vaccines is indisputably good. However, a return to normal office life may still be some way off.

3rd Dec 2020
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It is almost impossible to believe that at the beginning of this year life was so normal we didn’t even think of it as normal.

We went into town every day (or in some cases 3 to 4 days a week), chatted with colleagues, wined and dined clients and even invited them into our offices for meetings.

Fee income was increasing at a healthy rate, recruitment was tough but manageable and there seemed no reason to worry about our futures, although some may have been a little wary about the potential consequences of a no deal exit from the European Union.

However, that was a long way off and surely Boris Johnson wouldn’t want his legacy to be a reputation as the man who wilfully wrecked the economy.

Almost overnight, our peace of mind was shattered as the country was locked down, offices abandoned, and panicking clients started to go under or hit a financial low where they couldn’t afford our services.

Before too long, it became apparent that while the profession needed to undergo a transformation, it would survive. This meant that we might have to forego a few luxuries in the short-term but the future looked pretty rosy for most, if not all, well-established accountants.

Since then, we have been chugging along in a kind of limbo, doing our best to keep clients happy, ensure that fees are paid and learn how to get the best out of staff whom we only ever meet at the end of a telephone or on a computer screen.

Similarly, clients may be tightening their belts but many are willing to pay for lucrative special projects or advice, while insolvency practitioners must be rubbing their hands together with glee and many tax specialists will already be recognising future opportunities, even if they can’t quite pin them down yet.

What we have all been waiting for is the miracle vaccine that will put an end to all of the uncertainty. Now, with three apparently close to the market and several others not too far behind, we are almost there – or are we? Stop press news is that one has even been approved for imminent use in the UK.

According to the ever-reliable Minister of Health Matt Hancock, everybody who needs an inoculation should be sorted out by the end of April. It follows that by then we can open offices fully, travel on packed commuter trains safely and chuck away all of those odious plastic masks.

However, Mr Hancock really needs to have a chat with the new vaccine czar, Nadhim Zahawi. Earlier this week, he proudly announced that the process is well underway but would not even commit to the proposition that 1 million people a week might be receiving vaccinations.

Let’s run through the numbers and see what this means.

In Matt Hancock’s eyes we need to vaccinate approximately 30 million people. It appears that in order to do this successfully every person will need two injections.

Therefore, if everything runs perfectly, that requires 60 million injections. In reality, lots of things can and will go wrong and, given the recent failure rate on logistical projects, the actual number of injections needed to get 30 million people fully inoculated against the virus could easily be 100 million.

Even in the perfect world of 60 million injections, at 1 million a week the process will not complete for approximately 14 months. Using the 100 million estimate, it will take two years.

Listening to scientists rather than politicians, there seems to be confidence that somehow, and it isn’t explained how, the rollout might take only six months i.e. be completed by the middle of next year.

Given that very few if any of the scientists who understand these things are confident that the vaccine will be effective for more than one year, unless the bullish are right, we are talking about a Forth Bridge effect, where it will be necessary to start doing round two for the early recipients a year before we complete round one for the relative youngsters.

I would love to think that come Mayday the profession will have forgotten all about coronavirus and life will return to where it was at the beginning of 2020. In reality, that may be a wee bit optimistic.

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By killer33
07th Dec 2020 15:28

We can only hope more of the vaccines are approved for use asap.

As for returning to the office, well who knows? My Wife recently commenced employment for a large Charity in a credit control role. Pre-Covid this was an office based role but she has worked from our dining room table and not even met any of her co-workers other than via Zoom. She has been informed that her role, along with most other 'office' workers will, subject to certain exceptions, have the wfh arrangement made permanent.

Over half of their offices will be closed with the remaining ones reconfigured as meeting/team building hubs.

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PJ
By paulgrca.net
09th Dec 2020 14:02

Some of us never left the office!

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