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So... we're to rely on people who want to push legal boundaries for the continuation of our profession. Interesting take. Although some might say that is exactly what a chunk of the profession do already so no change there.
More seriously, I don't see the prospect of a genuine AI as comparable to the introduction of calculators or computers.
The introduction of these pieces of technology were merely tools that enabled the accountants of the day to do their job more efficiently. You still needed the accountant to know what figures to put in the calculator/computer, and to know what the end product meant. The technology merely gave them a quicker and more convenient tool to do that part of their job.
The holy grail for AI, is a machine that thinks as good as, and eventually better than, a human. So all the information that the old accountant would type into the computer and interpret, that will be fed into the AI (probably directly from a bank feed), and the AI then has the ability to interpret that information and provide advice to the end user. If the holy grail is achieved, then it's not impossible to think of the AI machine being able to provide the advice accountants do.
As the article suggests, there will initially be those who don't adopt the new method (just like there are still hunter gatherers in a world that adopted agriculture thousands of years ago), but these people will be in a minority, which will reduce with time.
For once, I think the complexity of our tax system is a good thing for the profession. The myriad of legislation, guidance and case law a small business has to navigate simply to claim expenses for their travel costs presents a difficulty for the AI. I guess if the AI is as good as a human, then it to will be able to learn the rules, but I think it'll take a long time before they are able to properly program the machine on the intricacies of tax law.
I guess the programming process would be quicker if the government got together and simplified the tax rules and other regulations business face, but I think we'll be safe enough on that front.
So whilst I agree with the article that it'll be some time before we have to genuinely worry about what AI could do to the profession, if it is actually achieved, then I believe the professions days are numbered (along with many other professions).
On the flip side, AI has still to be developed, and might never be, so we might be fine after all.
I do think the accounting profession, at least at the small biz end, will be decimated in the next few decades.
What's currently considered "low end" work (compliance, getting accurate data from client to HMRC/Cos Hse) will become automated. Income/expenditure will increasingly become electronic, and tagged with plenty of info enabling the software to accurately know what was bought. There will be a streamlined flow of this info to HMRC, without the need for humans to copy/paste numbers from one bit of software to another.
What's currently considered "high end" work (offering advice on how to improve things) can be boiled down to algorithms. Is X high relative to Y? If so, recommend action Z.
From a selfish perspective I'm not too fussed. In the short term it'll likely mean more profits for senior accountants as they need fewer juniors to do the same amount of work, as software gradually improves. As is often the case, the young/lower skilled will be screwed first.
If the standard of AI "threatening" us is that displayed by HMRC's phone robot, I'm not even a little bit worried.
As AI continues to evolve and improve, it will definitely take out the small accountants who manage very basic level type of stuff. But I don't think it will ever replace a CFO or accountants who are doing some serious excel wizardry.
I'd like to see AI answer the questions we get on AWEB. Come to think of it, AI might be asking some of the questions!
That's a really interesting thought!
Will AI be "clever" enough to understand the extent of its ignorance in certain areas and ask other AI bots or humans for assistance?
Will AI also be able to understand the concept in a complex problem that some aspects of the problem are fundamental and other aspects are trivial, so that it doesn't have to waste trillions of processing cycles making sense of the trivial?
I suppose it will eventually.
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