Combined impact of Covid-19 and Brexit still uncertain
The Imprudent Accountant provides upbeat and downbeat analyses of the combined economic impact of coronavirus and Brexit. How will departure from Europe impact on an economy ravaged by Covid-19 and what will this mean for us?
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I would genuinely love to be able to project a more positive repost, but you seem bang on to me.
Right now we are riding on the success of clients former years, counting as we do the past, but I see little reason to be cheerful right now. I am working madly (holiday cancelled) bringing in every penny I can to fill the coffers before some lean years. We had the benefit of a stay of execution from the IR35 changes for 12 months which has added about £20-30k to our turnover but that will drop out next year. Right at the point we hit the wall of reality post-brexit that wishful thinking does not make good policy, and business will be failing or cut back through our whole portfolio, not just the obvious ones at the sharp end.
Its the worst economic outlook I can ever remember for my business. The economy can take a few knock but its seems like having being knocked over by Covid, we are going to chop our legs of with a hard Brexit and the only plan from No.10 is to blame Covid for writhing around on the floor.
I suspect you may actually be too positive in your outlook both re our government's ability to get drunk in a brewery and regarding its deficient understanding of trade (the experts, not being wanted, have evidently, like Elvis, left the building).
I have never before really hated a Conservative administration but am certainly making an exception for this one.
At 60 the only thing I can really now do is improve my health in order that I will still be around to read the books about all of this when I reach 90, history is not going to be kind.
For the rest of you, those not yet having enough set aside to soon retire, I pity the struggles you will now have; regarding my children at least one is leaving the UK for good (for the USA) and in another 18 months the other will have an internationally recognised professional qualification to go with her degrees.
I agree with Begbies Traynor re the economic outlook and have been putting my money where my mouth is by buying shares in them within my SIPP.
p.s One thing the author mentions is the EU granting an extension to the transition, I do not believe the EU itself now can, the ability to have a right to trigger and grant any extension was firmly within the WA, the deadline now being passed I think legally any extension we now seek requires the consent of the 27 individual EU members but I think the point is academic, "this idiot is not for turning" to borrow from Mrs T.