Head of Insight AccountingWEB
Share this content
Tags:

Election notebook: Nightmare on Downing Street

6th Jun 2017
Head of Insight AccountingWEB
Share this content
10 Downing Street
iStock_Downing Street_oversnap
10 Downing Street

John Stokdyk gets in shape for the Friday morning post-election hangover with a few thoughts on what to expect on the tax and accounting front.

With campaigning interrupted by the recent terrorist attacks, the election has taken a surreal, nightmarish turn that washed away many of the certainties that prevailed when the Prime Minister announced the vote in late April.

A Tory landslide at the expense of Labour can no longer be automatically assumed. Politicians and commentators are now openly day-dreaming about alternative outcomes.

Uncertainty is anathema for businesses and their advisers. Instead of planning in a stable (yes, that word) environment, any investments or other spending decisions need to be considered against a variety of circumstances that will depend on the new government’s direction and the outcome of Brexit negotiations.

To help smooth this process, AccountingWEB consulted a range of sources to compile this catalogue of potential post-election scenarios. Feel free to share your own predictions for the future by commenting below.

Scenario 1: Same as it ever was

Maybe the 2017 election was just like a bad dream, and we’ll wake up on Friday morning with a political line-up much as it was when Parliament was dissolved seven weeks ago.

If the Tories are returned with a smallish majority, this no-change scenario would see Spreadsheet Phil back in post to continue his “Austerity lite” path as Chancellor, focusing more on Brexit priorities than major tax reforms.

The Tory manifesto raised the prospect of increased investment in health (£8bn) and education (£4bn), but economic conditions and the impact of the UK’s departure from the EU could constrain the new government’s spending commitments.

Nevertheless, those restraints should not hamper the Conservative plan to reduce the corporation tax rate to 17% and raise the personal income tax allowance to £12,500 by 2020 or thereabouts.

If he picks up where he left off, the Chancellor could reintroduce his plan to equalise NIC rates for employed and self-employed individuals. Hammond has seen the memos and consultation responses from the Office of Tax Simplification and the accounting profession and could bolster his urge to equalise tax treatments by merging income tax and NICs.

However, the Tories alienated well-off pensioners during the campaign by suggesting a £100,000 means test on free social care, from which Theresa May subsequently backpedalled. Any move on income tax and NICs would have the same effect on pensioners liable for a bit of extra tax on their pensions income. Shareholders - another core constituency for the government - would also suffer.

While the markets would take comfort at this result, the no-change scenario would probably see the Chancellor bringing back leftovers from the truncated Finance Bill, including the legislative framework for Making Tax Digital. This upsetting prospect for the accountancy profession might be softened by an extra 12-month in the timetable to accommodate the extra delay caused by the election.

Scenario 2: Theresa’s dream comes true

But is it safe to assume that Philip Hammond will still be Chancellor this time next week? Emboldened by a beefed up majority, Theresa May could replace Philip Hammond with someone more sympathetic to her cause, such as her new favourite, Amber Rudd.

Whitehall whispers suggest that Hammond is not quite on the same wavelength as the Prime Minister, with reports that industrial language is occasionally dished out between their collective teams.

If May does install a new resident at 11 Downing Street, the novice Chancellor would need to learn the ropes before bringing a new set of policy proposals to Parliament. So don’t expect a quick summer Budget in this scenario. Assuming the government sticks with Hammond’s new-fangled Autumn Budget timetable, which hasn’t got off the ground yet, all eyes would turn to November.

Major changes at Cabinet level would open the door to more of those “one nation” spending commitments in the Tory manifesto. But it would definitely extend the legislative delay on the controversial Making Tax Digital reforms.

A strong mandate would allow the Chancellor to do what they wanted with HMRC’s grand digital project, but much depends on whether the new incumbent buys into the whole digital transformation idea, or has the previous First Secretary of the Treasury and MTD champion David Gauke around to stiffen their resolve.

For businesses and the markets, however, the timetable for tax simplification and digitisation will be dwarfed by concerns over the progress and outcome of Brexit negotiations. Ironically, a big majority would give Theresa May the confidence to talk tough at the negotiating table, which could rebound on her if the other EU countries adopt a similar hard line in response.

Scenario 3: A hung parliament

This is the ultimate nightmare on Downing Street. With no party able to command a majority in the House of Commons, we could face the prospect of yet another election campaign. And everyone wants that, right?

Theresa May would find her “leave it to me” stance on Brexit fatally undermined. If she was able to put together a minority government, the need to keep the Lib Dems and nationalist parties onside would mean that another referendum to endorse any exit deal would be likely. Assuming, of course, that she was able to stay on as Tory leader.

For this scenario to come about Labour, the Lib Dems and Greens would all have to surpass expectations, raising the prospect of a progressive alliance. As the left and centre parties came together to explore their common ground, who would emerge as Chancellor and what direction would they take?

With so much confusion and uncertainty in the air, any tax changes would need to simple and symbolic. The most obvious option would be to drop the Tories’ proposed CT rate cut. Labour and the Greens want to increase it and the SNP has voiced its opposition to any further cuts. The Lib Dems, meanwhile, want to draw the line at 20%. So pick a number between that and 28% and you’ve got a concrete proposal for the Queen’s speech.

The VAT rate is another one of those “lockdown” items that would be ripe for review. In the past week, Labour highlighted the anti-progressive nature of high indirect tax rates, while the SNP and Plaid Cymru are both sympathetic to targeted cuts in VAT to support the tourism and hospitality sectors.

The international markets would not take kindly to a hung Parliament and the ensuing uncertainty, leading to yet more pressure on the pound and inflation, sending the economy and government deficit projections spiralling further into the abyss. Confusion would extend to Brexit negotiations and the possibility of some kind of review or a second referendum to see whether the voters really meant it in 2016.

One corollary of all this horse-trading and chaos would be that the last thing anyone was thinking about would be MTD. The SNP is in favour, but would phase in quarterly reporting over five years, while Labour promised to exclude small businesses from MTD.

So for some accountants, maybe this wouldn’t be such a bad scenario after all…

Scenario 4: Labour shock win

Let us enter the realm of fantasy and imagine Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister and John McDonnell as Chancellor. Unlikely, yes, but we’ve seen a lot of improbable election results in recent years.

Labour rhetoric in this campaign has matched the “soak the rich” slogan of Dennis Healey’s heydey, but “target the few” may have resonated with younger, dispossessed voters.

Those earning £80,000 or more a year can expect tax increases under Labour, with lower threshold for the 45p additional rate and a return of the 50p rate on earnings above £123,000. A new excessive pay levy has been suggested that would slap a 2.5% charge on earnings above £330,000 and 5% on more than £500,000.

The Labour manifesto included proposals to raise £4.7bn a year through a financial transaction tax, along with an end to “tax giveaways” on capital gains tax and inheritance tax. The party would also extend stamp duty reserve tax to derivatives and review corporate tax reliefs.

As well as floating the idea of a VAT rate reduction, Labour said during the campaign that it would also impose VAT on private school fees.

Jeremy Corbyn was one of the only party leaders to acknowledge the existence of MTD when he said small companies would be exempted, but it is moot whether he will have much time to devote to this issue while pressing ahead with plans to renationalise the railways and other public services such as Royal Mail and utility companies.

Investors will obviously not be keen on this election outcome, so we could expect a serious buffeting of any and all UK assets to further complicate the economic outlook.

And did someone mention Brexit? Labour members, it seems, are just as ambivalent as previous Conservative administrations. The UK electorate will obviously have warmed to Corbyn’s straight-talking style for him to move into Number 10, but will the Eurocrats buy it? And what would his negotiating stance be?

This article was written as a planning aid rather than from a political agenda and started out with four fairly obvious potential scenarios. Even at this level of detail, the permutations are endless.

What factors are likely to have the most impact on businesses and accountants - and what post-election predictions are you willing to advance ahead of the actual result?

There is plenty of room for further analysis in the comments section below… If you can't get enough of political discussion and debate, be sure to join us on Thursday evening after the polls close for our overnight election live blog and chat.

 

Tags:

Replies (45)

Please login or register to join the discussion.

By JCresswellTax
06th Jun 2017 16:24

Accounting web = loads of election garbage.

What has this to do with accounting?

Thanks (4)
Replying to JCresswellTax:
By Tom Herbert
06th Jun 2017 16:41

Thank you for your comment @JCresswellTax.

To answer your question, the purpose of the article was to look at possible election outcomes from a tax/accountancy perspective.

If this is not technical enough for you there are six non-election based articles on the homepage or try the tax page: www.accountingweb.co.uk/tax (although granted that does have a lot of election stuff on there).

Still, it's over on Thursday - until the next one :-)

Thanks (6)
Replying to JCresswellTax:
John Stokdyk, AccountingWEB head of insight
By John Stokdyk
06th Jun 2017 19:51

Sorry if I added to the mountain of election verbiage, but there IS a point to the article around planning different scenarios for businesses. From published info from each of the parties, we can estimate some of the tax and accounting policies they would implement, and start to consider what the implications might be.

There's a lot of uncertainty about what the economic impact of the different results would be, but isn't that something a proactive adviser or business manager should think about?

My political affiliations have been impugned elsewhere, but whatever they might be if I had any significant investments and the polls keep moving the way they have, I might be tempted to consider some hedging strategies in case the FTSE index and the pound took a major dive.

I didn't have time, space or energy to start modelling likelihoods and financial impacts, and was hoping that other election watchers might like to join in.

Thanks (5)
Replying to John Stokdyk:
Hallerud at Easter
By DJKL
07th Jun 2017 02:00

Actually if sterling dives a fair chunk of the FTSE100 will rise given a large amount of non sterling earnings. Shell has a stonking yield if you can stomach oil/gas uncertainty.

You may be right re more UK focused companies , you have to be selective.

Pre the referendum I sold all European ITs and sat with the likes of Shell, HSBC , Far East ITs, North American ITs etc,plus cash, then ploughed in on the fall. Whilst not getting my timing right (I sold out on a lot far too early and had to reinvest again) it is looking, year on year,June 2016 to June 2017 like a 22% gain for the year, if I had been less cautious possibly nearer 30%.

Market timing is always tricky and I have learned from experience that being out can be worse than riding the storm.

If FTSE 250 then possibly your advice has more merit, that is why this index has been a little wobbly.

I would maybe trim housebuilders and some financials if cautious, I never hold utilities (do not trust re government interference)

Anyway good luck but do always remember an index is a blended dish.

Thanks (1)
Replying to JCresswellTax:
avatar
By Prem Sikka
07th Jun 2017 10:26

Accountants are also mothers, fathers, brothers, sisters, daughters, sons, investors, neighbours, savers, pensioners and human beings. How did you decide which bit in the article is not about counting, accounting, accountability, tax, business, regulation, life or aspirations? Are accountants as human beings not interested in any of these things? Some might not be but this one certainly is and I am grateful for this thoughtful article even though I disagree with some of it.

Thanks (5)
Replying to JCresswellTax:
avatar
By raybackler
07th Jun 2017 10:44

This is a balanced article looking at alternative tax scenarios. It does have relevance to accountancy. It is not political and does not take sides. Accountancy does not exist in its own little world - it is influenced by outside events.

Thanks (6)
Replying to JCresswellTax:
avatar
By AndrewV12
14th Jun 2017 12:32

Its pure self indulgence, but its good fun, don't forget elections only come around every ......2 years :0

Thanks (0)
By ireallyshouldknowthisbut
06th Jun 2017 16:37

John I think you have again nailed your blue underpants to the mast on this article.

Personally i'd love to see a coalition as it takes the edge of the dafter policies whether red blue, yellow or a (very unlikely!) green are in charge. Hardly a nightmare.

Thanks (5)
Replying to ireallyshouldknowthisbut:
John Stokdyk, AccountingWEB head of insight
By John Stokdyk
06th Jun 2017 19:58

Oh, come on! I'm sorry if any political sympathy was inferred by the headline. None was intended.

I listed the scenarios in order of likelihood and the "nightmare in Downing Street" heading relates to a) the view point of the current occupant b) the possibility of another election c) a weak attempt to inject a dream reference in the hope that it would make a good headline.

I'm not particularly for or against a coalition or informal arrangement emerging. It would certainly make things interesting for us on AccountingWEB.

Thanks (1)
Replying to John Stokdyk:
Stepurhan
By stepurhan
07th Jun 2017 10:24

John Stokdyk wrote:

Oh, come on! I'm sorry if any political sympathy was inferred by the headline. None was intended.


What about the content then?

Describing the election as having taken a "surreal, nightmarish turn" immediately followed by a paragraph about how a Tory landslide is no longer a certainty. (I am aware of many that would consider a Tory landslide the ultimate nightmare scenario)

Describing the possiblity of a Labour victory as to "enter the realm of fantasy".

Describing the Tory manifesto promises in a purely factual tone, whilst describing the Labour manifesto promises as rhetoric that harks back to the past.

As editor of the site, you should have stepped aside for someone more able to write without showing such bias. It sadly does not surprise me that you were unable to do so.

Thanks (2)
Hallerud at Easter
By DJKL
06th Jun 2017 16:51

There are far too many Talking Heads in this election.

Edit, looking at the lyrics some of them are very apt re Brexit:

"And you may find yourself living in a shotgun shack
And you may find yourself in another part of the world
And you may find yourself behind the wheel of a large automobile
And you may find yourself in a beautiful house, with a beautiful wife
And you may ask yourself
Well...How did I get here?

Letting the days go by
Let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by
Water flowing underground
Into the blue again
After the money's gone
Once in a lifetime
Water flowing underground

And you may ask yourself
How do I work this?
And you may ask yourself
Where is that large automobile?
And you may tell yourself
This is not my beautiful house
And you may tell yourself
This is not my beautiful wife

Letting the days go by
Let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by
Water flowing underground
Into the blue again
After the money's gone
Once in a lifetime
Water flowing underground

Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...

Water dissolving...and water removing
There is water at the bottom of the ocean
Under the water, carry the water at the bottom of the ocean
Remove the water at the bottom of the ocean

Letting the days go by
Let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by
Water flowing underground
Into the blue again
Into the silent water
Under the rocks and stones
There is water underground

Letting the days go by
Let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by
Water flowing underground
Into the blue again
After the money's gone
Once in a lifetime
Water flowing underground

And you may ask yourself
What is that beautiful house?
And you may ask yourself
Where does that highway go to?
And you may ask yourself
Am I right?...Am I wrong?
And you may say to yourself yourself
My God!...What have I done?!

Letting the days go by
Let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by
Water flowing underground
Into the blue again
Into the silent water
Under the rocks and stones
There is water underground

Letting the days go by
Let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by
Water flowing underground
Into the blue again
After the money's gone
Once in a lifetime
Water flowing underground

Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...
Look where my hand was
Time isn't holding us
Time isn't after us
Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was...
Yeah, the twister comes
Here comes the twister
Same as it ever was..."

Thanks (4)
Replying to DJKL:
avatar
By tonyarm
08th Jun 2017 17:09

To DJKL

YES YES YES - Talking Heads

Thanks (0)
Hallerud at Easter
By DJKL
06th Jun 2017 17:08

"So pick a number between that and 28% and you’ve got a concrete proposal for the Queen’s speech."

Surely 26%, did not think anyone had outbid JC, who is bidding at 28%?

Thanks (0)
Replying to DJKL:
John Stokdyk, AccountingWEB head of insight
By John Stokdyk
06th Jun 2017 19:45

Well done for picking up the subliminal message from David Byrne - even though it might get us in trouble for quoting the whole song...

Meanwhile, in response to this query the The Green Party plans to increase corporation tax to 28% for large companies. I neglected to include a link in the piece to the analysis from Rebecca Cave on the different parties' tax proposals:
https://www.accountingweb.co.uk/tax/business-tax/comparing-election-mani...

Thanks (0)
Replying to John Stokdyk:
Hallerud at Easter
By DJKL
07th Jun 2017 02:07

Well, that one ain't happening.

However I did have one of the three Scottish Green candidates at my door, charming lady and great fun to chat about things like EPC certs on old buildings and damaging impact on commercial space if low performers would need upgraded; told her if it ever happened would likely demolish most of ours and build flats as could not, economically, be brought up to likely standard so all the small business entities we rent to would become homeless.

Still despite my telling her at outset my vote was unlikely (though I do agree with new build being built as near carbon neutral as possible- buyers pay a premium) it was an interesting conversation.

Thanks (0)
avatar
By spilly
06th Jun 2017 17:33

Could have just put it in one sentence really. 'We don't know what will happen, but whatever does happen, it may change or not change things'.

Thanks (2)
Replying to spilly:
avatar
By JasonRodwell
07th Jun 2017 10:27

I think it is worth at least being aware of potential outcomes though so at least we are not caught off guard in our profession.

Thanks (0)
By 0098087
07th Jun 2017 10:09

we didn't get the meltdown expected after the Brexit vote so I don't expect one with a hung parliament or Labour win.

Thanks (0)
avatar
By booksy
07th Jun 2017 10:19

Have to say imho this is deffo a pro blue article. Praying for a hung parliament - time for teamwork again!

Thanks (2)
avatar
By NeilW
07th Jun 2017 10:23

"economic conditions and the impact of the UK’s departure from the EU could constrain the new government’s spending commitments."

You would think accountants, of all people, would know that when government spends money it creates a spending, taxation and income chain of transactions that generates the equivalent amount of taxation and increased net-saving - in the ratio of around 90% to 10% depending upon the private sector net-saving rates.

It's in the national accounts after all.

So it always add up. It's a geometric progression, not a simple sum.

The government is limited by what is available to *buy* at a price that is worth paying. If it is there the government can put it to use, which will create another stream of turnover and spending that business will be happy to receive.

So funnily enough if there is a pullback or an export slump that gives *more* scope for government to do things, not less.

Government struggles to get things done during a boom. Very difficult to get a hospital built when all the construction workers are building casinos.

Thanks (0)
Replying to NeilW:
Hallerud at Easter
By DJKL
07th Jun 2017 17:57

Does depend where the spending goes, marginal propensity to consume considerations and loss of funds abroad (leakage) damp the effects, not bad for 35 years since I really read any economics.

I also remember my national income accounting classes as school and university, circular flows, equations, multipliers etc, IS/LM supply side , all the nonsense,the catch is, as the chap who was my best man has often said (He did a single honours economics degree whereas I was a dabbler at university), most of it is b******s, what you are told in say school is superceded in first year, then again in second year, repeat third year third year and same in final year of university, and as neither of us reached the heady heights beyond we have no idea if the theories blasted about do refine to a degree of certainty or not in rarefied air, that fact economics is called the dismal science tends to speak for itself and give the answer.

Once of the reasons I am intrigued with Labour, whilst not trusting all they propose, is a properly managed investment bank might be far more logical and targeted re lending decisions than the current crop of high street entities, funding is imho the key to growth re SME not tax rates.

I am frankly fed up with semi literate politicians spouting economics drivel , there must be two books of economics for dummies in print, they get their brief training then get thrown out to spout hot air ,only one in 20 can probably explain any economics beyond soundbite answers.

Actually that is not correct, the Liberals and Greens have a third version of the book on recycled paper and the SNP version just has blame XXXXX on every page.

I do not mention UKIP because we have more Pandas up here than UK supporters (Actually friend of my son stood for them in 2015- has since left them) so not really that sure what they are like, and we do not keep any in our zoos.

Thanks (0)
avatar
By mkowl
07th Jun 2017 10:41

The fact is if there is a coalition and the tax changes arise as mooted, lets be honest us accountants will be busy with client requests on how to mitigate their impact. Legitimately of course

Thanks (0)
avatar
By Michael C Feltham
07th Jun 2017 10:43

What will happen?

Plus ça Change, Plus C'est La Même Chose.

Thanks (0)
Replying to Michael C Feltham:
avatar
By rememberscarborough
08th Jun 2017 14:02

Not sure you'd be allowed to say that after Brexit!! (Actually, I'm one in favour of it because my opinion is that the EU is on the brink of disintegrating and this gives us a chance to get ahead of the game both socially and financially)

Thanks (0)
Replying to rememberscarborough:
Hallerud at Easter
By DJKL
08th Jun 2017 17:11

Presume you don't mean we can disintegrate first, then again maybe you do.

Thanks (0)
avatar
By Albasas
07th Jun 2017 10:55

Well it all started off about Brexit and the need for a clear unambiguous UK Mandate for Theresa May to take on the EU bureaucrats over the decided tactical terms of leaving. However, with all due respect, May has flip flopped that many times over many different issues in her recent and past political career, it looks like she can't be trusted to deliver, run the economy, or think through her policies properly. She doesn't look leadership material and is seemingly wanting to dodge analysis of her policies in debate. Whereas Corbyn has made the most of the failure of austerity type policies by recent governments and that must go down to some of the worst chancellors in my memory, Osborne & Hammond. They both make Gordon Brown look like Adam Smith. My prediction, not a Tory landslide, maybe a minority, hung parliament or coalition, with Corbyn's Labour swinging it on Brexit and joining up with the SNP (the natsy's), on anti-austerity measures. The Liberal guy is a waste of time.

I think though, the general consensus is that taxes in general will be going up, triple lock etc not withstanding, but Theresa May dare not admit it. Hammond will be wheeled out again to take the blame for getting his sums wrong, if they can find him, he is posted missing right now. Maybe he's back at day release studying economics or something?

Thanks (1)
avatar
By geoffmw1
07th Jun 2017 11:02

IMHO the outcome of the election could well depend on turnout. I suspect the higher the turnout, the higher the chances for JC!
If you don't fancy JC you must vote for TM's party or in certain constituencies the party that came second in 2015.

Thanks (0)
avatar
By geoffmw1
07th Jun 2017 11:09

nobody has mentioned the possible garden or land tax in the labour manifesto.

Thanks (2)
Replying to geoffmw1:
avatar
By Prem Sikka
07th Jun 2017 12:45

I commented on this yesterday in another thread and explained a little bit about Land Value Tax.

Thanks (0)
Replying to geoffmw1:
By SteLacca
07th Jun 2017 13:29

It's not only in the Labour manifesto. It's also half in the LibDem manifesto.

Thanks (0)
avatar
By supremetwo
07th Jun 2017 11:12

None of the parties has come up with any firm proposal to reduce Government expenditure.

As for accounting, it is inevitable that taxes have to increase to pay for all the pensions and people living longer.

Thanks (0)
avatar
By johnjenkins
07th Jun 2017 11:55

Great article, John (no I mean it).
I had Tim to hold balance of power before Manchester and London. Now I think policies have gone out of the window. So it's whoever Joe public think they will be safer with. After TM coming out with "changing the human rights bill if neccessary" (not riping it up) I think she will do it with a small increased majority. Will it be enough to stop her resigning though?
Everything taxation wise that was put on hold prior to election will be back on the table even MTD. She's got a lot of money to raise for the extra security measures needed.

Thanks (0)
avatar
By Ian McTernan CTA
07th Jun 2017 12:05

Here's what we can expect no matter who wins: more complications to the taxation system.

Thanks (1)
avatar
By carnmores
07th Jun 2017 12:54

its a bit bloody obvious , the comments are more interesting than the article but hey ho that's what its all about as we ponder the future of the nation

Thanks (1)
avatar
By carnmores
07th Jun 2017 12:56

Tim to hold the balance of power you must be joking that was never on ever , he has nothing to offer he's a pipsqueak and a homphobe

Thanks (1)
Replying to carnmores:
avatar
By johnjenkins
07th Jun 2017 13:45

You missed the point Carnmores. Prior to Manchester and London TM was losing ground and watching her was actually making me cringe. She looked no way as a PM in waiting. So I had it fairly even between Labour and Tory, which would have made Lib/Dems hold balance. Of course homphobe wouldn't have got a look in. Cleggy would have seen to that. Oh yes they would have gone with Labour this time round.

Thanks (0)
Replying to johnjenkins:
avatar
By raybackler
08th Jun 2017 20:01

Won't LibDems be irrelevant? SNP is by far the third largest party and will continue to be after tonight, maybe with their wings clipped a little.

Thanks (0)
PJ
By paulgrca.net
07th Jun 2017 13:02

What is the point of this speculation when the result will be known in a couple of days!

Thanks (0)
Replying to paulgrca.net:
Hallerud at Easter
By DJKL
07th Jun 2017 18:02

It is the suspense, the discussion, frankly if we did not have this I doubt my daughter would say anything to me until the start of the football season- handy they called in an odd year so as not to clash with summer football.

Thanks (1)
avatar
By The hound
08th Jun 2017 03:20

There were as many DUP MPs elected in 2015 as Liberals, as many SDLP as Plaid and more UUP MPs than Greens.

If Conservatives lose 6-15 seats to Labour, A Tory minority Governement supported by DUP is more lightly than a coalition of Labour/SNP/Liberal/SDLP/PC/Greens.

The question is what would be the price demanded by the Ulstermen?

How would this affect Brexit negotiations bearing in mind Northern Ireland's land border with EU?

Thanks (2)
Replying to The hound:
avatar
By carnmores
08th Jun 2017 10:45

Thanks Hound , at last someone who understands the process. I was born in Dundalk which is just south of Crossmaglen , I remember well the old border tricks so am concerned about a hard border especially as i am an all Ireland supporter but maybe this will hasten that?

Thanks (0)
avatar
By johnjenkins
09th Jun 2017 09:15

So now there is only one course of action. Tories and Labour will have to form a coalition - nothing else will work. The idea is not as stupid as it sounds. Tories 42% of the vote and Labour 40%. Far too close for a PM to work around. If TM and JC want stability then they've got to "get together right now".

Thanks (1)
avatar
By justsotax
09th Jun 2017 10:39

John I for one would love to see that but can you ever imagine politicians from different parties actually working together, as part of a team, for the good of the country....I am not sure they are grown up enough to do that.

Thanks (1)
Replying to justsotax:
avatar
By johnjenkins
09th Jun 2017 15:20

Eventually they are going to have to. Can anyone see how any combination of what we have got will work other than Tory/Labour? Whichever party tries to form a government you've got the other 50% disagreeing.

Thanks (0)
avatar
By AndrewV12
14th Jun 2017 12:30

Extract above
'Labour rhetoric in this campaign has matched the “soak the rich” slogan of Dennis Healey’s heydey, but “target the few” may have resonated with younger, dispossessed voters.'

He also said 'squeeze he rich until the pips squeak,' if the rich can survive Dennis Healey they can survive anything.

Thanks (0)